The NBA season starts Tuesday and I am going to pick the regular season standings, awards and Conference Finals and Finals.
West Standings
Thunder
Projected Starting 5: Shai Gilgous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren
The Thunder are going to be a wins machine this season because to me, this is the best team in the Western Conference. Their starting 5 is amazing with the replacement of Josh Giddey for Caruso and the rebounding is going to improve with the signing of Isaiah Hartenstein. The Thunder are going to be awesome this season
Timberwolves
Projected Starting 5: Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert
I don’t like the Towns trade for the Wolves but this is still a really good team with an elite defense. They have a really deep and versatile team that can win a number of different ways. They have a superstar in Anthony Edwards, an offensive organizer in Mike Conley and a defensive anchor in Rudy Gobert. The Wolves are going to be really good.
Nuggets
Projected Starting 5: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
I talked about Denver at length last week so go check that out. What I will say is don’t ever count out Nikola Jokic.
Mavericks
Projected Starting 5: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively
How much better did Dallas get? Klay Thompson is a big name but the Warriors were better when he was on the bench last season. Shooting and perimeter defense were big issues in the Finals and while their shooting got better, the defense got worse with the losses of Josh Green and Derrick Jones Jr.
Grizzlies
Projected Starting 5: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey
The Grizzlies are going to be a bear (no pun intended) to score on. According to PBP Stats, with Smart and Jackson Jr. on the floor last season, Memphis only gave up 109.2 points per 100 possessions last season. The defense will be great, I like their bench and let’s not forget how good Morant really is. Memphis is going to be a dark horse in the Western Conference this season.
Suns
Projected Starting 5: Tyus Jones, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkic
A new point guard and a new coach should make the Suns better this season, I just am not sure they can compete with what the top of the West has to offer. They will need good health and a big bounce back season from Beal to have any shot at competing in the west this season.
Kings
Projected Starting 5: De’Aaron Fox, Keon Ellis, DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray, Domantas Sabonis
The Kings are going to have an awesome offense and win a ton of close games. I like the DeRozan addition, he will give them another layer of scoring in their starting 5 that didn’t exist with Harrison Barnes. Malik Monk also returns from after a knee injury ended his season last year.
Lakers
Projected Starting 5: D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, LeBron James, Anthony Davis
The Lakers are running it back with the same team as a season ago. New coach JJ Redick inherits a very flawed roster that was mediocre for a lot of last season and will likely remain that way this season. Their shot variance should improve but I am not sure how much that changes their team. However, the father-son combo with LeBron and Bronny James will be very cool.
Warriors
Projected Starting 5: Stephen Curry, Brandon Podziemski, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green
The Warriors were a slight disappointment last season so they made sweeping changes. Out goes Chris Paul and franchise icon Klay Thompson and in come De’Anthony Melton, Buddy Hield and Kyle Anderson. I think they got better but not better enough for it to matter in the Western Conference.
Clippers
Projected Starting 5: James Harden, Terrence Mann, Derrick Jones Jr., Kawhi Leonard, Ivica Zubac
It has gotten to the point now where you cannot expect Kawhi Leonard to be healthy. Last season, Leonard had great health, he played in 68 games and made an All-NBA team but then he was hurt for the playoffs. If Leonard is healthy, the Clippers could be pretty good, even without Paul George, I just don’t expect Kawhi to be healthy.
Pelicans
Projected Starting 5: Dejounte Murray, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Zion Williamson
McCollum and Ingram don’t fit on this team, I would much rather those guys be off the team and a center be on this team. I like Murray’s fit with Zion, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy but that lineup will likely be used less than it should. Look for the Pelicans to make a trade mid season because they badly need a center as well.
Rockets
Projected Starting 5: Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr., Alpern Sengun
Over the last 23 games of the season, Jalen Green averaged 24.5 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. The Rockets season will depend on how real that jump is. The starting 5 was +0.4 per 100 possessions in 754 minutes last season, that is not good enough. In what is a loaded Western Conference, it’ll be tough for Houston to make the play-in.
Spurs
Projected Starting 5: Chris Paul, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Jeremy Sochan, Victor Wembanyama
The Spurs had a good offseason. They drafted Stephon Castle in the draft and added Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes in free agency. The CP3-Wembanyama pick and roll is going to be so much fun to watch.
Jazz
Projected Starting 5: Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Taylor Hendricks, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler
The Jazz are, in all likelihood, going to be really bad. Which is a good thing considering they owe their first round pick top 10 protected to the Thunder this season. Keeping that pick is a must.
Trail Blazers
Projected Starting 5: Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Deni Advija, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton
The Blazers are going to be bad but they do have a chance to be a fun watch. The Scoot Henderson-Donovan Clingan pick and roll is what they are building their future around so I am excited to see how that looks this season.
East Standings
Celtics
Projected Starting 5: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis
The Celtics were historically good last season and I don’t see why that won’t be the same this season. They brought back 13 roster players from last season and still have the best top 6 in the sport. The Celtics are going to be tough to beat.
Knicks
Projected Starting 5: Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns
The Knicks got better this summer. Losing DiVincenzo, Hartenstein and Randle will hurt but adding Bridges and Towns makes them better. The offense should be awesome, KAT changes how you have to guard them, it is the defense in a playoff series that worries me. Towns has shown to have problems as a rim protector and he and Brunson will be picked on by the elite teams.
Cavaliers
Projected Starting 5: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
I think Cleveland is going to win a lot of regular season games. They have had some fit issues in the past but they have a new coach in Kenny Atkinson who will help them fix some issues. Having Mobley and Allen will make their defense elite and Mitchell will be able to will them to a bunch of wins. Cleveland is going to be very good.
76ers
Projected Starting 5: Tyrese Maxey, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Caleb Martin, Joel Embiid
Philadelphia’s size worries me. This is a small lineup beyond Embiid and playing against Boston, Milwaukee, New York and Cleveland requires some size to you. They won’t win as many games as expected with Embiid and George not playing back to backs but the Sixers are still going to be a force in the east and a team to watchout for.
Bucks
Projected Starting 5: Damian Lillard, Gary Trent Jr., Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez
The Bucks are coming off of a chaotic season in which they acquired Damian Lillard a week before training camp, fired their coach half way through, brought Doc Rivers in to be the new coach and lost in the first round. Injuries and age have caught up to the Bucks around Antetokounmpo, who remains one of the best players in the league.
Magic
Projected Starting 5: Jalen Suggs, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Orlando is coming off of their most successful season since Dwight Howard was on the team, 47 wins and a near series win, the Magic are building something. Banchero is a star but they are built off of their defense, the addition of KCP is an indication of that. I worry about their ability to score enough points in a playoff series but this is a good team.
Pacers
Projected Starting 5: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner
The Pacers are going to score a lot of points but they are also going to give up a lot of points. Haliburton is a star and Siakam is a co-star, I just worry about the defense. This is going to be a tight race in the east and I just worry if Indiana can get enough stops to go on a similar run they went on last year.
Heat
Projected Starting 5: Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Jamie Jaquez Jr., Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo
The Heat seem to love being the 8th seed. As Pat Riley said at his season ending press conference, the Heat need Jimmy Butler to be on the court. They need to be more consistent in the regular season as well.
Raptors
Projected Starting 5: Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl
There is a big drop off from 8 to 9 in the east and Toronto is the best of the bunch. This is going to be a fun, tough team. Barnes is a stud, 19.9 points per game last season and his first All-Star nod showed that he is a franchise building block. Beyond that acquiring Quickley and Barrett was a really good move as both players look like they can be a part of the future up north.
Hawks
Projected Starting 5: Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Clint Capela
Assuming Young stays healthy, the Hawks will win enough games this season to sneak into the Play-In Tournament. I think Young is that good. Last season when Young was on the court without Dejounte Murray, the Hawks had an offensive rating of 122.1, which would have been 2nd in the NBA only 0.1 points behind the Celtics. Trae Young is a walking top 10 offense and the Hawks will score enough points to win enough games to be in the play-in.
Hornets
Projected Starting 5: LaMelo Ball, Josh Green, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, Mark Williams
Like the Hawks, the Hornets season will come down to the health of the star point guard. If Ball is on the court, Charlotte will have a chance to compete for the play-in, if he is not, they will not be able to compete. Mark Williams will also need to be healthy but the Hornets have a lot of NBA players on the roster, which is always a good thing to win games.
Bulls
Projected Starting 5: Josh Giddey, Coby White, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, Nikola Vucevic
The Bulls are in this in-between space where they want to go young but still have some bloated veteran contracts on their team. White is really good, with averages of 19.1 points and 5.1 assists per game in a breakout season last year. If LaVine is on the court and playing well, he also remains a good player. They’ll win enough games to remain out of the very bottom of the east but not win enough to make the play-in.
Pistons
Projected Starting 5: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Simone Fontecchio, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren
The Pistons should be better this season but that just is making sure they aren’t one of the worst teams ever. I like the Harris addition, his shooting and ability to put the ball on the deck will help the Pistons. Having a coach who actively doesn’t want to coach the team will help as well. I am just hoping for a big Cade Cunningham season because he is very good.
Nets
Projected Starting 5: Dennis Schroder, Cam Thomas, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton
The Nets are tanking as they traded their best player this summer and re-acquired their first round picks from Houston. Cam Thomas will likely shoot a lot so that could be worth watching (it probably isn’t) and Noah Clownly showed some things last season.
Wizards
Projected Starting 5: Malcolm Brogdon, Jordan Poole, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyle Kuzma, Jonas Valanciunas
I think that the Wizards are the worst team in the NBA. Number 2 pick Alex Sarr had an abysmal summer league so his transition to the league could be tough but there is a lot of skill there. I really like Coulibaly, hopefully he can take a jump and I think Kuzma gets traded by the trade deadline so keep an eye on that.
Regular Season Awards
MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The SGA MVP campaign will be very simple. Oklahoma City should win 60+ games, having one of the best records in the NBA and I think Denver will take a step back as Gilgeous-Alexander averages 30 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds per game and leads in the NBA in steals per game. SGA is an awesome player on what should be the best team in the west.
Rookie of the Year: Zach Edey
I think Memphis is going to be really good and Edey will be a part of that. His screen and roll game will be very important to the Grizzlies offense and he will be able to feast on posting up mismatches. I am also excited to see how he adapts to guarding NBA centers, Memphis likes to play Jaren Jackson Jr. off of the ball which forces Edey to be the go to guy on opposing teams bigs.
Sixth Man of the Year: Donte DiVincenzo
DiVincenzo is a winning player and as we saw with Naz Reid last year, this award has started to veer towards winning players. Traded to Minnesota on September 27th, there is clearly some sourness towards members of the Knicks coaching staff, so what better way for DiVincenzo to prove himself than taking home the Sixth Man of the Year.
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert
I am going with the safe pick here, Gobert has 4 DPOY’s to his resume so why not add a fifth. The Wolves are going to have a great defense and Gobert is going to have a great year anchoring said defense.
Most Improved Player: Scottie Barnes
This award has skewed towards players who take smaller but more impactful leaps in recent years and that is what I think Barnes will do. Scottie Barnes is really good and I think he is going to have a career year.
Clutch Player of the Year: DeMar DeRozan
I am replacing the Coach of the Year pick with a Clutch Player of the Year pick because it is hard to pick a Coach of the Year. The pick for DeRozan is simple, Sacramento is going to win a ton of close games and DeRozan is going to hit a ton of big shots.
Playoff Picks
Western Conference Finals
Thunder over Nuggets in 6 games
Oklahoma City is that good. Their defense is swarming, their shot variance is elite and they are a better rebounding team with the addition of Hartenstein. The Thunder are going to be a regular season wins machine and I don’t think that changes in the playoffs
Eastern Conference Finals
Celtics over Knicks in 6 games
The Celtics were 14 games better in the regular season than everyone else in the east and 12-2 in the Eastern Conference Playoffs for a reason last year. Has the gap closed? Yes, it has, the Knicks and Sixers are better but it has not closed to the extent that Boston isn’t the favorite in the east this season.
NBA Finals
Celtics over Thunder in 6 games
I hate picking the Celtics because I think I am a mush but I can’t justify not picking Boston this year, they are just too good. 80-21 last year was not an accident, the 2023-24 Celtics were one of the most dominant teams of all-time and Joe Mazzulla won’t let them lose their focus this season.
The NBA returns Tuesday and for that we are all very excited. So let’s all sit back and enjoy these next 8 months because basketball is finally back.
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