As we head towards the season and continue to preview it, I wanted to talk about 3 teams that I am excited for and 3 teams I am weary of as we enter the season or 3 teams I like and 3 teams I don’t like.
Team I like: Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies had a brutal season a year ago, going 27-55 while using an NBA record 33 players. Ja Morant only played in 9 games, key offseason addition Marcus Smart played in 20, Brandon Clarke played in 6 and Desmond Bane played in just 42 games last season. That is 4 key players on either playing in half or way less than half the games last season. Health will be a huge dictator on how this season for the Grizzlies and with GG Jackson already being out for an extended period of time, that is not off to a great start. However, I am hopeful that health will be on Memphis’ side this season and they’ll get off to a fast start. My best guess for their starting 5 is Morant, Bane, Smart, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey. The group of Morant, Bane, Smart and Jackson played just 114 minutes together last season with a net rating of 2.6. The defense was elite, a 106.8 defensive rating but the offense left some to be desired with a rating of 109.3 in the limited sample. With a pair of former Defensive Players of the Year on the team, Memphis should be elite defensively and on offense, everything runs through Morant and Bane. Edey will be thrusted into a big role but I think he’ll be ready for it, playing center with Morant is not all that difficult and with his size and ability to make free throws, he should be a plug and play big. The rest of the rotation will include Clarke, Vince Williams, Luke Kennard, Santi Aldama, Jake LaRavia and Jackson when he gets back. This team has shown they are a regular season wins machine and with everyone coming back, I expect much of the same this season.
Team I don’t like: Utah Jazz
In each of the last 2 seasons, the Jazz have gotten off to good starts that were fun to watch. Will Hardy is a really good coach and when given good players, he can squeeze out wins. I just don’t think he has the players this season. Lauri Markkanen is a star, with averages of 24.5 points and 8.4 rebounds in 121 games since he came over in the Donovan Mitchell trade. He is the face of the franchise and a really good place to start your rebuild. Can he be the best player on a championship team? I am not sure but having an elite player like Markkanen is never a bad thing. They have some young players I like as well. Keyonte George will likely be the starting point guard, he needs to make more shots but he can dribble, pass and shoot at a high level. Taylor Hendricks is a big body wing who can play with Markkanen and a center, he didn’t show a ton last season but could be a starter this season. Cody Williams can space the floor and hit 3s while also being able to put the deck and get to the cup. Finally, while he is coming off of a down sophomore season, I still like Walker Kessler as a rim protecting, pick and roll center. The rest of the roster is a mix of players. Collin Sexton is good and should be a part of the future but John Collins, Jordan Clarkson, Drew Eubanks and Svi Mykhailiuk aren’t. The last few seasons, Utah had players like Mike Conley, Kelly Olynyk, Malik Beasley and others to help them steal wins early in the season. I just don't think that they have that veteran talent right now. Even though I am excited about the future, it could be a long rough season for the Jazz playing in the loaded Western Conference.
Team I like: Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets being in the like section and Jazz being in the don’t like section could be seen as due to the conference they are in but I don’t think it is. There are a lot of players on the Hornets roster that are pretty good NBA rotation players. LaMelo Ball, Josh Green, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges and Mark Williams are the likely starting 5 with Grant Williams, Tre Mann, Vasilije Micic, Cody Martin, Nick Richards and number 6 overall pick Tidjane Salaun as bench options for new coach Charles Lee. That is 10 guys who have proven they can play in the league and one top 6 pick. Let’s start with Miller, who looked really good in his rookie season. At 6 foot 7, Miller averaged 17.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists on shooting splits of .44/.37/.83. He can dribble, pass and shoot and has the size and tools to become an elite defensive player. Everything the Hornets do should be about making the former 2nd overall pick as successful as possible. I have never been the biggest LaMelo Ball fan but if he cannot stay on the court this season, the Hornets will not be competing to make the play-in like I think they should be. Playing in just 58 of a possible 164 games over the last 2 seasons, Ball has averaged 23.5 points, 8.3 assists and 5.9 rebounds over those games. A good player when on the court, he just needs to be on the court more. Mark Williams also missed a ton of time last season playing just 19 games but if he is on the court, I expect him to take a leap this season. His rim running ability to go along with his rim protection is a perfect mix with Ball, so hopefully both players stay healthy. Josh Green is an awesome pick up from the Mavericks and I still don’t understand why Golden State did not want him in the Klay Thompson sign-and-trade. I am really excited for this Hornets team but they’ll need to stay healthy. While Miller is the future, Ball remains the number 1 option for the Hornets in 2024-25 and Charlotte needs him to be on the court, or else none of the rest of it matters.
Team I don’t like: New Orleans Pelicans
When the Pelicans first traded for Dejounte Murray, I was in on the deal. Adding Murray helps their defense and I like his fit with Zion Williamson, a lineup of Murray, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, Zion and a center would be a great lineup. However, that is not an option to start with C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram on the roster. There seems to be little interest in the league regarding McCollum and Ingram, especially Ingram who is looking for a max contract extension. They also don’t have a starting center with Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. departing and no real replacement coming to the team. The starting 5 will be Murray, McCollum, Ingram, Jones and Williamson with a bench that includes Murphy, Daniel Theis, Jose Alvarado and Jordan Hawkins. That is a team with talent but one that I am not sure fits all that well. I think what I hated most about the Murray trade was losing Nance, who played a ton of 5 for the Pelicans at the end of last season. The veteran Theis and rookie Yves Missi is just not a sustainable plan at center, the Pelicans need to address that position at some point during the season. Zion at center has never gone very well, I just don’t think there is enough rim protection and rebounding on the floor during those lineups and it looks like New Orleans will be starting it this season. They also need to get Jones and Murphy on the court. While Murphy did miss time last season, when those two players are on the court, the Pelicans are a different team. Last season in 914 minutes when Jones and Murphy shared the Pelicans had a net rating of 9.2, which would have ranked 2nd in the league behind the eventual champion Celtics. The Pelicans are at their best with those guys sharing the court and with the logjam they have at guard and on the wing, it seems like they’ll end up having Murphy and Jones on the court less than they should. In a loaded Western Conference, I could see the Pels falling behind the rest of the pack.
Team I like: Toronto Raptors
I am very high on Toronto this season, not in terms of winning a championship because that won’t happen, but that they can be frisky and make a push for the playoffs in the east. Like the Hornets, this is a team with a bunch of NBA players on its roster. Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are locks to be starters and my guess is that 2023 lottery pick Gradey Dick will be the 5th starter. The bench includes Kelly Olynyk, Davion Mitchell, Ochai Agbaji, Chris Boucher and Bruce Brown when he returns from right knee surgery. Sure there are questions but I am high on this team and excited to watch them. Let’s start with Scottie Barnes, who I think is going to become a star. Barnes made his first All-Star team last season with averages of 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game. His 3 point shot is improving too, jumping to 34% last season after being at 28% in 2022-23. He is the best player on the team and should be able to be the foundational piece for Toronto going into future years. The Raptors did struggle to score when Barnes was on the bench last season, their offensive rating dropped from 115.4 to 110.3 when Barnes was not on the floor a season ago. Quickley and Barrett are keys to making sure their offense does not bottom out when Barnes sits. The numbers weren’t great last season but in their first full season in Toronto after going through a full training camp, I think they’ll get better this season. The defense was putrid a season ago, with a 118.1 defensive rating, ranking 26th in the NBA. If they’re going to become a serviceable defense this season, they’ll need to be better at guarding the three point line after allowing teams to make 37.6% of their 3 pointers last season. That said, I think Toronto is going to be a dangerous and very fun team to watch this season with their new core of Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett.
Team I don’t like: Atlanta Hawks
Trae Young has become one of the more underrated players in the NBA, I really think that he can get this Hawks team to the play-in. He is better than any player in the Eastern Conference teams competing outside of the known top 8. The rest of the roster leaves a lot to be desired. Jalen Johnson is really good and probably should have gotten more Most Improved Player love last season. Averaging 16.0 points and 8.7 rebounds, Johnson became a legit guy for the Hawks last season after being a bench piece his first two seasons. Onyeka Okongwu should be the starting center though I think they’ll go with Clint Capela. I am still an Okongwu stock holder but he needs to put it together soon as we are entering year 5. There does not seem to be a ton of love for number 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher, which is not all that surprising considering this draft was seen as one of the worst in recent memory. The rest of the roster leaves a lot to be desired. Dyson Daniels, De’Andre Hunter and Capela will likely be the other 3 starters with Young and Johnson; that lineup lacks shooting which is a major concern. Swapping out Dejounte Murray for Daniels will help their defense, Murray didn’t guard anyone last season, but scoring when Trae isn’t on the court will be a huge issue for the Hawks. The Hawks scored 101.3 points per 100 possessions last season when both Young and Murray were not on the court. Murray is now a Pelican and Young has a history with injuries. If Young gets hurt for an extended period of time like he did last season, the Hawks could very well find their season in the toilet. Bogdan Bogdanovic will help them but he is not the scorer or even half the creator for others that Young and Murray are. If Trae Young is on the court, the Hawks offense will be good, they were 12th in the NBA last season with Young missing 28 games. He can get them to 40ish wins and a play-in spot, I really believe that he is that good. However, if something were to happen to Young, the Hawks season would go in the toilet and the Spurs would likely be getting a top 5 lottery chance, the Hawks owe the Spurs their pick from their own acquisition of Dejounte Murray. I think the Hawks are in a similar class to the Raptors and Hornets, I am just not excited to watch them this season.
Training camps are here and the NBA season is a month away. I am so excited to get it started.
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