In 2022, the Dallas Mavericks went to the Western Conference Finals behind great guard play with Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson, and Spencer Dinwiddie, and a great defense led by Head Coach Jason Kidd and good wing defenders, Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock. Last season, they took a big step back, missing not only the playoffs, but the Play-In Tournament, finishing 11th in the West. They had lost Jalen Brunson to the Knicks, who signed a 4-year contract worth over $100 million, so at the trade deadline they traded for Kyrie Irving, and they still missed the Play-In Tournament. After re-signing Irving, Dallas wants to make noise in the West, so the question is, can they?
The Mavericks had a disastrous season last year and they tanked the last couple of games to ensure they were able to keep their first round pick that was top 10 protected to the Knicks. That pick ended up being 10th and Dallas made a couple of trades to improve their team. First they moved back two spots, getting off Davis Bertans contract in the process and drafted Dereck Lively with the 12th pick. Then they traded back into the draft and added Olivier-Maxence Prosper with the 23rd pick and acquired Richaun Holmes as a part of the trade. The draft set the memo that they wanted to get better defensively, thus in free agency they signed Grant Williams and Derek Jones Jr. to go along with Seth Curry who can provide more shooting next to Doncic and Irving. I liked what Dallas did at the draft a lot but I worry if Williams is a redundant fit next to Maxi Kleber, both guys are natural 4s who can space the floor and are considered plus defenders, add Prosper to the mix and they are going to be playing big a lot of the time. The starting center debate is interesting, with both JaVale McGee and Christian Wood departing, Dallas is left with Holmes, Lively, and Dwight Powell to consider for the starting job. My guess is Powell gets the nod, as Kidd seems to really trust him and he continues to defy the odds and remain a Maverick no matter how many times they try to push him out. Josh Green seems like as close to a lock as possible to be the starting 3, the 18th pick in the 2020 draft has become a rock solid player for Dallas, so the last spot is down to Kleber and Williams. That is a good starting 5, with a solid bench, especially if 2022 2nd round pick Jaden Hardy can pop. As the presumed 3rd guard in Dallas, the Mavericks need Hardy to be a major factor in 2024 because behind Kyrie and Luka there is not much ball handling and that worries me. I think Dallas will be improved, the question is: are they improved enough?
The Mavericks need their defense to bounce back, after finishing 7th in the NBA in 2021-22, Dallas was 21st in defensive rating last season, that has to improve if Dallas wants to compete in 2023-24. The loss of Dorian Finney-Smith is one that may end up haunting the Mavericks if Prosper, Green, Williams, and others do not step up this season. Finney-Smith was Dallas’ best defender and is someone they need to replace with the roster they have. Josh Green or Grant Williams is the most ready choice but Green isn’t as big as Finney-Smith and Williams isn’t as quick, Prosper has the body type, but is he ready for that role? The Mavericks need to find their DFS replacement and I am not sure that player is on the roster. Also, all great defenses have elite rim protection, Dallas does not have that. Dwight Powell, Dereck Lively, and Richaun Holmes are all good players but none of those guys can be an elite anchor on a defense, someone who can lift your defense from middle of the pack to top of the league, maybe Lively has the potential to do it but he is only 19 years old. Lastly, their guard’s are not going to play a lick of defense, Irving and Doncic have never been defenders, Seth Curry is too small, and Jaden Hardy is not exactly Gary Payton or Marcus Smart. The Mavericks do not have a roster built to be elite defensively and I think it’ll show once the season starts.
As I have talked about, the Western Conference is very deep with a lot of good, solid basketball teams and Dallas’ defense is a major concern. However, I think there are ways Dallas can compete. It starts with Luka, he needs to have an MVP caliber season for the Mavs to reach the heights they want to reach. They also have to be one of the 3 to 5 best offenses in the sport and, frankly, I do not see a reason they can’t do that. When you assemble a backcourt with that much firepower, you expect to be near the top of the NBA in terms of offensive rating. After the All-Star break last season, the Mavericks ranked 11th in the NBA in offensive rating, that has to improve and I think it will. With 444 minutes under their belt already, Luka and Kyrie now get an entire training camp and preseason of learning how to play together and that is important. Add in the shooting of Curry, Williams, Kleber, Green, Hardy, and Tim Hardaway Jr. and you have the potential to be one of the best offenses in the league. We have seen a team with Luka Doncic and its 2 best player as another guard go all the way to the Western Conference Finals, and Irving is better than what Brunson was back then. If the Dallas Mavericks are going to be successful, it is going to start with their offense.
I think the Mavericks have a chance to be a good team with an elite offense, but do I think they are title contenders, no I do not. There is not enough defense on this team to compete with teams like the Nuggets and Warriors and that is what I think is going to be Dallas’ downfall next season. The Dallas Mavericks are going to be really fun to watch next season, I just do not think they are in the inner circle of title contenders.
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