This week we saw a lot of titans of the recent years in the NBA fall. The Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, and Milwaukee Bucks were all bounced in round 1 so I am going to talk about what comes next.
Suns
The Suns went all in this summer and in August, I said this could be considered the most important season in the history of the franchise and it turned into the most embarrassing season in franchise history. They are locked into 3 players that did not look like they fit well. Bradley Beal has a no trade clause and an awful contract, he is not going anywhere. Devin Booker is the face of the franchise and another guy who is not going anywhere. That leaves us with Kevin Durant as the last part of the ‘big 3’ they assembled. Sure, there are other ways they could go to improve the team, Grayson Allen just had a career year and signed a 4-year contract extension but what does trading Allen accomplish? How much does it shake up the roster? A Durant trade would change this roster in a meaningful way, the question is does it make them better and would they be able to deal with the embarrassment of that kind of trade after what they gave up for Durant? I think it is unlikely Durant goes anywhere so they’ll tweak the roster and probably fire the coach and hope that next year goes better than this year because as owner Mat Ishbia said “there are 26 GM’s that would trade situations with us”.
Lakers
The Lakers are in a really interesting spot. After back to back 7 seeds had very different results, the Lakers can trade 3 picks this summer and try to get the 3rd star. I know we all remember what happened the last time L.A. tried to trade for a 3rd star, the Russell Westbrook trade, but that should not prevent them from trying to take a big swing this time around. Trae Young and Donovan Mitchell are 2 names that jump off of the page to me if the Lakers decide to go in the 3rd star direction. The Lakers are also looking for a new coach after they fired Darvin Ham. We know Ty Lue is LeBron’s top choice, as the 2 were together in Cleveland from 2016 to 2018, when they went to 3 NBA Finals and won a championship in 2016. JJ Redick, who has a podcast with LeBron, is also a candidate for the job. After losing in 5 games to the Denver Nuggets, the Lakers need to be real with themselves, the roster is not good enough to compete with the top of the West. Oklahoma City, Minnesota, and Denver have all passed the Lakers by and they need to be real about that. They have options and can make moves this summer to give them a chance going forward but they need to have a real shake up roster wise this summer.
Clippers
Kawhi Leonard has signed a contract extension and there have been no signs James Harden wants to switch teams again so those 2 guys will, in all likelihood, be back with the Clippers. Paul George is the question mark, he can opt-out of his $48.7 million player option and become a free agent this summer and the Philadelphia 76ers have max cap space. Let’s look at the options for George, he wants to be back with the Clippers but they have not given him the kind of extension he wants yet. According to Forbes, the NBA’s over 38 rule will prevent the Clippers from having a huge money advantage in these negotiations. Forbes says that the Clippers can give George $221 million over 4 or 5 years while any other team, the 76ers in this case, can give George $212 million over 4 years. Marc Stein, a long time NBA Insider, said that people around the league believe the Clippers have not even offered George the $150 million they gave Kawhi Leonard in January. The Clippers have backed themselves into a corner with this core of Leonard, Harden, and George, and they are playing a very dangerous game by letting George get to the open market.
76ers
The Philadelphia 76ers have max cap space this summer and 5 draft picks they can trade. They have the ammunition necessary to add a 3rd star next to Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. Maxey is due a contract extension this summer, 5yrs/$205 million is expected to be the deal, assuming he is not on an All-NBA team. His cap hold, however, is just $13 million dollars, allowing Philly to sign free agents and then pay Maxey his new max contract. Paul George is the free agent we all assume the Sixers will want and the pitch is simple. Where can you best win, with an aging star who is always hurt and is not the player he once was and with another aging star, or with an MVP caliber player who is hurt less than the guy who last played with (but still gets hurt a lot) and with a rising young star. I suspect George remains with the Clippers but if they do not pay him the money he wants, the Sixers will be lurking. They could also go the trade route, using cap space and draft picks to add a 3rd star. Daryl Morey has given himself a lot of options this summer while also putting a lot of pressure on himself to get it right.
Heat
After making the finals last year as an 8th seed, the Heat decided to try and run that same strategy back and were the 8th seed this season. However, a high ankle sprain from Jimmy Butler prevented that and they were promptly taken out swiftly by the Celtics in 5 games. Now, Miami faces a lot of questions. Butler wants a new 2yr/$113 million contract extension this summer, yet having not played 65 games in his entire Heat tenure, Miami is reportedly hesitant to give him a new deal. Could the Heat use Butler as a chip to get Donovan Mitchell, who they have not so subtly wanted for a few years now? Jimmy Butler has been the face of the Heat for 5 years now, since they lured him over from the Philadelphia 76ers in 2019, could they really trade him? Yes, absolutely could, as a matter of fact, I think there is around a 50% chance that Butler has played his last game for Miami. The Heat need to make this roster better, both Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra know it and a Butler trade could be the way they do it.
Bucks
Back to back first round exits have to make the Bucks worry. After firing Mike Budenholzer and trading Jrue Holiday last summer, Milwaukee needs to reshuffle this roster again. Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are the easiest ways to do that. Middleton is due $31.6 million next season and Lopez is due $23 million next season so they could break up those two players into younger players, who are better point of attack defenders. They could look to trade Damian Lillard as well, whom they moved Holiday for last summer, but that feels extremely unlikely for them to pull the plug this quickly on the duo of Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have no future 1st round draft picks they can trade so they’ll need to trade high priced guys on the roster to improve their team. Since winning the 2021 Finals, Milwaukee has only won 1 playoff series, a 2022 first round series against the Bulls. As Zach Lowe says, the vultures are starting to circle around Giannis and the Bucks need to start winning so that he does not demand a trade anytime soon.
A bunch of teams we have gotten to know over the past couple of seasons had disappointing first round exits and now they each enter a big offseason.
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