With the season coming to an end, I thought we should talk about how some of the playoff and play-in races are shaping up.
West 10th seed
Current standings:
9. Lakers, +2.5 Games
10. Warriors, -
11. Rockets, 0.5 GB
Remaining strength of schedule rankings, Warriors 25th hardest (.460 win percentage), Lakers 24th (.472), Rockets 7th (.537)
The top 10 in the Western Conference was locked up and the Rockets were on the outside looking in. In fact on March 7th, Houston was in 12th and was 6 games back of 10th place. Since then something has flipped and the Rockets have been dominant, going 9-0 and outsourcing teams by 17.7 points per 100 possessions when filtering out garbage time, which is the best in the NBA during that stretch. A lot of this has to do with the sudden breakout of Jalen Green, who is averaging 29.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists on shooting splits of .50/.44/.78 over the last 9 games. Those are All-NBA worthy numbers and it has led to the ascension of Houston who has shot up the standings and now sit only a half-game behind Golden State for 10th in the West. The Warriors have struggled recently, 3-6 since March 7th and being out scored by 1.7 points per 100 possessions. That said, I expect the Warriors to fend off Houston and make the Play-In Tournament. The Warriors have left the door open for Houston to steal the 10th seed in the West, can the Rockets take it?
West 1st seed
1. Nuggets, -
2. Thunder, 1.0 GB
3. Timberwolves, 1.5 GB
Remaining strength of schedule rankings, Minnesota 21st (.477), Denver 20th (.482), Oklahoma City 5th (.542)
Let’s go from the bottom of the Play-In Tournament to the top of the standings. Just a game and a half separates the top 3 teams in the Western Conference, it is as tight as possible. The Thunder have the most challenging schedule remaining so that likely hampers their ability to get the top spot out West but it is not impossible. I think that it is important for all of these teams to have the top seed in the West for different reasons. For Denver, they get to have the advantage of being used to playing in the altitude with the home floor. For the Wolves, that crowd desperately wants a team to be successful and it is easier to play at home than on the road. For Oklahoma City, they are so young and the Thunder fans get so loud that I think home court would do them the most service out of any of these teams. Also, the 1 seed doesn’t have to likely play the other two to get to the Finals, so on top of having home floor, you are not seeing one of the other top teams in the West, though the winner of the 4-5 series will be no slouch. That said, I expect the Nuggets to end up with the top seed in the west.
West 6th seed
4. Pelicans, +2.0 games
5. Clippers, +2.0 games
6. Kings, -
7. Mavericks, - (Kings have the tiebreaker)
8. Suns, 0.5 GB
Remaining strength of schedule rankings, Mavericks 17th (.484), Clippers 11th (.524), Pelicans 4th (.548), Kings 3rd (.558), Suns 1st (.647)
There are 2 races in here, the Clippers and Pelicans are unlikely to fall out of the 4-5 slot but crazier things have happened. That said I would be surprised if we did not get Clippers-Pelicans round 1, though with the way the Clippers have been playing it would not shock me. Thus that leaves us with a very intense race to avoid the Play-In and probably either LeBron James or Stephen Curry in an elimination game. Phoenix has a gauntlet of a schedule, with the Nuggets, Thunder, Timberwolves (twice), Clippers (twice), Pelicans (twice), and Cavaliers all trying to get good positioning in the playoffs too. Dallas has been the best team out of the 3 since the trade deadline as well, winning 66% of their games since February 9th. If I had to guess, I think that Dallas gets the 6th seed and we have Suns and Kings in the 7-8 play-in game. Avoiding the Play-In Tournament is vital for all of these teams. Note: this was written and published before the Kings-Mavericks game on Tuesday night.
East 3rd seed
2. Bucks, +2.5 games
3. Cavaliers, -
4. Knicks, 0.5 GB
5. Magic, 1.5 GB
Remaining strength of schedule rankings, Cavaliers 21st (.478), Magic 15th (.491), Knicks 13th (.510), Bucks 11th (.522)
The Celtics have clinched the number 1 seed, which is crazy because it is March 26th, though that 30 point collapse last night was troubling. I would be stunned if Milwaukee is not 2nd, a 2.5 game lead with just 11 games to play is not a small gap. So we are down to the Cavs, Knicks, and Magic for 3rd place. The Knicks have the best net rating out of the 3 teams and I think will get the 3rd seed. They play the Celtics in one of the last games of the season so Boston will likely be resting players, and the rest of their schedule, aside from the Bucks and the Thunder, is light, with the Kings and Heat being the best teams they’ll play. Meanwhile, the Cavs have dates with the Nuggets, Clippers, Suns, and Lakers left on a west coast swing. Orlando has been playing really well as of late too but I just do not think they’ll beat out New York or Cleveland for that 3rd seed.
East 6th seed
5. Magic, +2.0 games
6. Pacers, -
7. Heat, 1.0 GB
8. 76ers, 1.5 GB
Remaining strength of schedule rankings, Heat 29th (.442), 76ers 28th (.448), Pacers 16th (.488), Magic 15th (.491)
I would be surprised if the Magic fall out of 5th, up 2 games with 11 to play is a real gap, so expect them to be in the 4-5 matchup. Indiana is 2 games up on the Heat in the loss column and 3 up on the Sixers, which is significant. However, they only have 9 games left while the Heat have 11 and the Sixers have 10. I think Indiana gets that 6th seed, a 2 game gap is sizable, as I have mentioned, and the Heat and Sixers play in the 7-8 game. Since Joel Embiid went down the Sixers have been bad, going 10-16 while being outscored by 6.1 points per 100 possessions, in that same time Miami is +5.1 and Indiana is +2.9. I am not sure if Embiid is going to comeback, if he does, how healthy can he be? Is this team worth rushing Embiid back? I expect the Pacers to be 6th and Miami to be 7th, Bulls at Sixers for the 8th seed would be a very interesting game.
With the Play-In Tournament approaching there are a lot of races that still need to be figured out and it should be an exciting close to the season!
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