Each round 2 series is officially 4 games in and I am here to breakdown what we have seen and what comes next.
Pacers-Knicks, series tied 2-2
In games that OG Anunoby has played since the trade, the Knicks are 26-5, without him they are 13-16, including 0-2 in the playoffs. There is your difference in this series. After clawing out a game 2 win at home, New York dropped both games 3 and 4 in Indiana, game 3 off of an Andrew Nembhard stepback 3 and in game 4 the Knicks got punched in the mouth, losing by 32 points. The Knicks have also gone ice cold from 3 over their last 5 quarters of play, shooting 10/46 from downtown, 21.7%, in the first 2 games, they were 25/53, 47.2%. For as great and gutty as New York has been over these playoffs, they have to make their 3 pointers because otherwise, with or without Anunoby, they just cannot generate enough offense. As I have mentioned before, Jalen Brunson is great but he is their only guy who can create for himself and others efficiently at a high rate. The other guys have to make their 3s, or else New York will lose. Indiana’s offense has been the same throughout the series, highly prolific and they score lots of points. The defense in games 3 and 4 was much better to me. Ever since they put Aaron Nesmith on Jalen Brunson, Brunson has struggled, shooting 9/25 in the 14:53 that Nesmith guarded him over the last 2 games. It has changed the entire complexion of the series and Indiana’s defense has become a lot more rock solid because of it.
I don’t know who is going to win the series. If I were to guess, I would lean Indiana. Going all in on 3s is New York’s best option at this point so being at home for game 5 will help them in that regard. With all the injuries New York has, the status of Anunoby remains a big part of this series and it does not sound like he is going to return for tonight’s game. That removes the primary defender on Pascal Siakam which moves Josh Hart onto Siakam, which takes Hart off of Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton also has seemed to have woken up over the 2 games in Indiana as well so that is a huge win for the Pacers. I am not counting the Knicks out but I just think the Pacers are better equipped to win 2 out of 3 games right now than New York is. Game 5 is tonight at 8:00pm/EST on TNT.
Timberwolves-Nuggets, series tied 2-2
This series is the inverse of Pacers-Knicks in which the home team has won every game, in this series, the road team has won every game. After a gutty game 1 win, the Timberwolves took a commanding 2 games to 0 lead with a 106-80 blowout win. Then the series took 3 days off and shifted back to Minnesota for game 3. The Nuggets blew the Wolves off the court, 117-90 and reminded the world why they are the defending champions. Game 4 felt like a huge swing game in the series and both stars showed up, Anthony Edwards delivered 44 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists while league MVP Nikola Jokic dropped 35 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists. In the end, it was the Nuggets ‘others’ that stepped up and delivered in a big way. 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 6 assists from Aaron Gordon, 19 points, 8 assists, and 5 rebounds for Jamal Murray, and 3 Justin Holiday three pointers proved to be the difference in the game. Minnesota needs better play from Karl-Anthony Towns. 13 points on 5/18 shooting is not going to cut it against these Nuggets and that, along with the 8-0 run Denver went on in the last 19.4 seconds of the 1st half, was the difference in Denver’s 115-107 game 4 win.
Just like we should not have counted Denver out after the first 2 games, we should not count Minnesota out after these last 2 games. This series is far from over and though I am leaning Nuggets in 7, I would not rule out Minnesota. Their defense is too good to be counted out. Jokic has done a good job of picking said defense apart over these last 2 games but that should not change the overwhelming faith we have in the Wolves defense to counter right back. They are too good and too connected to continue to give up this many points and the Wolves are one of two teams undefeated on the road in these playoffs (the Celtics are the other). Timberwolves fans should not panic, but I would say the Nuggets should be favored to win the series. Game 5 is tonight at 10:30pm/EST on TNT.
Cavaliers-Celtics, Boston leads 3-1
If there is one thing we have learned about the Celtics over the last 3 years, they are an elite playoff team on the road. 8-5 in 2022, 6-3 in 2023, and 4-0 this season, Boston wins playoff games on the road. That has been no different in this series. After the two teams exchanged blowout wins in Boston (in which no one overreacted too), the Celtics walked into Cleveland and took both in ‘The Land.’ Jarrett Allen has yet to see the court in the series and Donovan Mitchell missed Cleveland’s must win game 4. It is a tall task to beat Boston with those guys so without them it’s nearly impossible for Cleveland to score enough points without making 20+ threes. For the Celtics, their stars delivered as Jayson Tatum woke up as the series shifted to Cleveland, with statlines of 33 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists in game 3 and 33 points, 11 rebounds, and 5 assists in game 4. Jaylen Brown also delivered big games with 28 points and 9 rebounds in game 3 and 27 points and 8 rebounds in game 4. Jrue Holiday has also contributed big over the last 2 games, which has proved big for the Celtics with Derrick White and Al Horford struggling.
If Cleveland is going to pull off the upset, they’ll need to win the math battle, by taking and making more 3s. The Heat beat Boston in game 2 of round 1 by making 23 of them and the Cavs will need to do just that to pull off this comeback. They took 48 threes in game 4 but only made 15 of them and went 3/13 from deep in the 4th quarter. The Celtics are the better team and they have shown that in 3 of the 4 games in this series. I expect them to close this series out on Wednesday night but not without a fight from the Cavaliers. Cleveland has leaned into taking a ton of 3s and it has a chance to work if they go in. Game 5 is Wednesday at 7:00pm/EST on TNT.
Mavericks-Thunder, series tied 2-2
After Oklahoma City took a 1-0 series lead off of a dominant game 1, the Mavericks answered in a resounding way winning the next 2 games and going up 2 games to 1. They were winning with 2nd chance points and big Kyrie Irving 2nd halves. They even led most of game 4 as well and by as many as 14 points before the Thunder came storming back behind a huge Shai Gilgous-Alexander game. With 34 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists, even with bad Jalen Williams and Lu Dort games, SGA would not allow the Thunder to lose. P.J. Washington has had a huge series for Dallas. Averaging 21.8 points and 8.8 rebounds in the 4 games, Washington has been the third scoring threat Dallas has really needed. Over the last 3 games, the Mavericks have been a better basketball team, this series should be 3 games to 1. Luka and Kyrie need to be better. Doncic was bad in game 4, 18 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists, Doncic was just 6/20 from the field and Irving was not better, 9 points and 9 assists on 4/11 from the field. Irving is averaging just 15.0 points in the series and has barely taken any shots in the first half. Dallas needs those guys to produce if they are going to win 2 of the next 3 games.
Mark Daigneault needs to shorten his rotation. Josh Giddey has been abysmal in these playoffs and needs to come out of the starting lineup while the Gordon Hayward/Kenrich Williams minutes are also unnecessary. Roll with the 8 man rotation of SGA, Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Jaylin Williams (yes OKC has 2 guys with that name), Aaron Wiggins, Casen Wallace, and Isaiah Joe. Those are your best 8 players and those are the guys Daigneault needs to have on the court. These next games are going to come down to a few things, first rebounding, the Mavericks need to dominate the glass as OKC was the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league during the regular season. Second, the stars, can Williams and/or Holmgren step up enough help to match Luka and Kyrie, who both need to be better. Last is 3 point shooting, which role players make enough 3s, that is what usually these shorten series like this come down too. Game 5 is Wednesday at 9:30pm/EST on TNT.
This next week as we head towards the end of these series should be a lot of fun and I am excited to see how these series shape up.
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