Everyone expected Damian Lillard to be traded to the Miami Heat, so when he was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday many, including myself, were surprised.. The full terms of the trade are, Lillard to the Bucks, Jrue Holiday, Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, a 2029 unprotected first round pick, and 2 pick swaps to the Blazers, and Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, and Keon Johnson to the Suns. There are so many questions after a deal like this so let’s dive into it
The Milwaukee Bucks were not good enough to run it back. I just found it hard to believe they would have been able to compete with Boston and Miami (if they got Dame) as was assembled. Now, not only do they prevent the Heat from getting Lillard, they get him for themselves. Losing Holiday will hurt their defense, and if he does get traded to an Eastern Conference contender (especially Boston) that could provide the Bucks some problems. However, their offense late in games, and playoff games more specifically, was unsustainable. It was putrid and the constant disappearance of Holiday was a big part of that. They have collapsed every year since they became a real contender, and that includes their championship year in 2021. It was most evident this past year when they were eliminated in 5 games by the 8th seeded Miami Heat, with their offense collapsing at the end of games 4 and 5 in historic ways. Khris Middleton had been the guy who bailed them out when they needed it in the past and it is a mystery if he can still do that for the Bucks. Enter one of the clutchest players in NBA history. Damian Lillard has not one but two series winning buzzer beaters in his career and never flinches when the going gets tough late in playoff games. That is the biggest part of the deal to me for the Bucks, Lillard should save their late game postseason falters going forward. Also, the pick and roll with Dame and Giannis is going to be lethal, so lethal.
As I mentioned earlier, the Bucks were not good enough as assembled to win the championship in 2024, now they absolutely are. It seems as if they are on a collision course with the Boston Celtics to face off in the Eastern Conference Finals, though it seemed that way last year too so I will never count out the Miami Heat again. The Celtics got better this summer with the addition of Kristaps Porzingis, he makes their offense a lot better when Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have the ball in their hands, which they should most of the time, and he helps their rim protection as well. He makes them bigger and allows them to play big more often than they did last season, and this is a better basketball team when they are bigger. Boston, like Milwaukee, has had late game playoff offensive woes, adding a 3rd scoring like Porzingis should help them when the going gets tough late in games, On paper, the Bucks and Celtics are the two best teams in the East and while I am not entirely sure who to the edge too, I would lean Milwaukee at the point but it will be interesting to see who comes out of the Eastern Conference in 2024.
Part of me will always believe Portland wanted Dame to ask out because they needed to start over and now they get to do that with a Scoot Henderson-Deandre Ayton pick and roll. I don’t love the return because I just do not think they got enough picks back but I do think this is a pretty solid return. I love them getting Ayton. He was so bad in the playoffs last season but this team will feature him in a way he has not been featured since the 2021 run. He is great for Portland’s young guards too as he is a center that can grow with them and can be such a reliable pick-and-roll guy. Moving off of Nurkic is big as well, he has not been the same player since his leg injury in 2019 and was a disaster defensively last season. However, this return is incomplete because it is expected that Jrue Holiday gets flipped in a new deal and I think that the Philadelphia 76ers are a team to watch.
We all know James Harden wants out of Philadelphia and that he wants to be a Clipper but neither side can agree on a deal so maybe now with Holiday on the market, maybe they can pull off a 3-team trade. A deal could be: James Harden and Danuel House Jr. to the Clippers, Jrue Holiday and Nic Batum to the Sixers, and Terrence Mann, Marcus Morris Sr., Brandon Boston Jr., Furkan Korkmaz, and a protected Clippers pick (one of 2028, ‘29, or ‘30) to the Blazers. I think this is a trade that works out for everyone involved as everyone involved gets what they seemingly want. There are a bunch of other teams that will get involved in a Holiday trade as well. The Clippers could just balk on Harden and trade for Holiday themselves, that could be the smarter move for them anyways. The Chicago Bulls should also kick the tires on Holiday and they are an interesting one, with Lonzo Ball maybe never playing basketball again, they could use him, Patrick Williams, Dalen Terry, send Portland their own pick back, and a pair of 2nds to the Blazers for Holiday. The Heat, who were the team that everyone thought would land Lillard, should be another team that gets involved. There are a bunch of ways Miami could go into an offer for Holiday but I think Kyle Lowry, Nikola Jovic, Haywood Highsmith, a first round pick, and the 2026 Lakers 2nd round pick would be one that makes both teams happy. Maybe the Nets throw their hat in the ring and offer Ben Simmons and 2 first round picks for Holiday. I am not sure where Holiday goes or how fast he is dealt but a deal will happen and there will be a lot of teams involved in the process.
What are the Suns doing? Phoenix sent out Deandre Ayton and Toumani Camara and brought in Jusuf Nurkic, Nassir Little, Grayson Allen, and Keon Johnson (it is being reported that the Suns will waive Johnson). The Suns are making a bet on Jusuf Nurkic here and I cannot for the life of me understand it. As I mentioned in my Suns preview last month, Frank Vogel seemed really excited to work with Ayton and I, seemingly foolishly, believed him. This now leaves a lot on Nurkic’s plate and his defense has not been there these last few seasons. Phoenix is relying on him to be their rim protection on a team that needs good rim protection in the worst way. Last season the Portland Trail Blazers were 25th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint, which is relevant because Phoenix has traded for Nurkic and signed Nurkic’s backup from last season in Drew Eubanks. Their bet is that Nurkic gets closer to what he was pre injury, Frank Vogel’s scheme helps their centers, and their secondary rim protection is better than Portland’s was a year ago. Again, I wouldn’t have made this bet. I expect Phoenix’s starting 5 to be; Booker-Beal-Little-Durant-Nurkic. That is a good group, an elite group even with the scoring power on it, but the defense is such a concern to me. The bench has really good shooting but again, defense is a concern. This is a bet against Deandre Ayton by the Phoenix Suns, and while I understand why you would rather bet against Ayton than on him, betting on Nurkic is not something I would want to do.
The Miami Heat did not get Damian Lillard because they did not have the assets. For as much of a disaster this feels like, if the Blazers did not like what Miami was offering then there was nothing to talk about. Now, if you are going to tell me that the Heat did not make their very best offer and that is why they didn’t land Lillard, it’s an unmitigated disaster for the Heat. As I mentioned in previous blogs, if wanting to hold onto Caleb Martin, Nikola Jovic, or Jamie Jaquez is the reason you don’t get Damian Lillard, there is no defense of that. I just can't believe that would be the case, that Pat Riley would allow that to be the case. My bet is that the Blazers didn’t want Tyler Herro and the offers to flip Herro were not google enough to justify passing on this Milwaukee package. Toronto is another interesting debate. I think the Raptors are making a mistake by holding on to this core because it just simply is not good enough. If OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, salary filler, and 2 first round picks get this deal done, I think they should have done it. I know I said they should not have done it just 2 days ago but running it back is not something they can do and I think that this price is reasonable enough that it does not hinder their future in a way that cripples them if the Lillard-Pascal Siakam-Scottie Barnes big 3 didn’t work out. Now that Lillard is off the board, I think the Raptors should trade Pascal Siakam.
After 3 months of wondering where Damian Lillard will go, we finally got our answer on Wednesday, the Milwaukee Bucks. It has made Milwaukee the favorite to win the NBA title in the eyes of Vegas and I do not disagree with them. Now, we wait to see where Jrue Holiday goes as that might have as much of an impact on the championship race as this Lillard trade does.
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