The Utah Jazz are trying to trade Donovan Mitchell. According to The Athletic, they have zeroed in on the New York Knicks, and according to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, it was leaked that Utah is trying to trade Mitchell because they want to get the best Knicks’ offer possible. Utah’s new head of basketball operations Danny Ainge has been known to make big trades from his time with the Boston Celtics, trading Celtic Legends Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett to the Nets back in 2013, he also traded multiple time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, who had spent his entire career in Utah, to the Timberwolves on July 1st. However, trading Donovan Mitchell is a different ball game and one I am not sure I would enter.
Donovan Mitchell is just 25 years old and is not just a good offensive player but an elite offensive player. He has averaged over 20 points a game every season of his career and has averages of 28/5/5 in 39 career playoff games. He is a big game performer, even though his team is not always successful, he shows up in the biggest of moments. Utah’s biggest problem has been their defense over the past few postseasons. Teams (the Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Clippers) have gone small against the Jazz in the playoffs and since the Jazz did not have the perimeter defenders to stay in front of the quick ball handlers Dallas and Los Angeles presented, they crumbled in back to back postseasons. Mitchell has not helped this either as he is not a good defender and is a part of the issue. However, Utah has added a lot of draft capital already this summer sending Royce O’Neale to the Nets and Rudy Gobert to the Timberwolves for a lot of future assets they can use to build a contender around Mitchell. I would not be so quick to trade Mitchell. However, this is Utah, which is not a glamor market so the Jazz wanting to get out in front of a potential request is what I think may be happening here.
The first trade I want to talk about is the Miami Heat. Their best offer is Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, one of Nikola Jovic or Max Strus, unprotected picks in 2023, 2027, and 2029, and pick swaps in 2026 and 2028 (the Heat would need to make their 2025 pick they owe to Oklahoma City unprotected to make this trade happen). This is not enough to me as Robinson’s contract is bad and Herro is due a big contract extension. So this is a no for me if I am Utah. However, if I can find a third team for Herro that makes it a lot more appealing in my opinion where I can add more picks and swaps. I like Tyler Herro, he is a good player who is worthy of getting a big contract this summer. He can really score the ball at all 3 levels and is progressing as a playmaker for others. However, Utah wants to enter a rebuild and I am not sure I want to start this rebuild by giving Tyler Herro a 4 year contract extension worth over $100 million, potentially worth way over $100 million. So finding a 3rd team and getting that god father amount of picks makes a lot more sense if they decided to go the Miami route. That being said, I think the more likely landing spot for Mitchell is the New York Knicks.
The Knicks have a lot of slop to offer. These extra picks everyone is talking about are not great, either heavily protected or are from good teams. They also have young players who are not all that appealing like Cam Reddish, who is a free agent next summer, Obi Toppin, who is due an extension next summer and is 24 years old, and Immauel Quickley, who is a fine player but is undersized and does not play defense. The Jazz need to be asking for future unprotected Knicks picks and swaps, need to be asking for intriguing youngsters like Quentin Grimes and Miles ‘Deuce’ McBride. R.J. Barrett is an interesting case. Barrett is good, has shown the ability to score at all 3 levels, is a plus defender, and is proving as a passer but I am not sure he is the blue chip prospect that some Knick fans make him out to be. He also needs a contract extension, which, like Herro, Utah probably does not want to start this rebuild paying. However, unlike Miami, New York owns all of their future picks, has some extra picks, and has good young talent to trade so they could keep Barrett instead of needing to send him to a 3rd team. To match salaries the Knicks need to offer Evan Fournier’s contract and one of Toppin or Reddish, probably Toppin since he has 2 years left in his rookie deal compared to Reddish’s one, one or both of McBride or Grimes (I would prefer Grimes), and a whole lot of picks. Personally, if I were the Jazz, I would ask for picks in 2024, 2026, and 2028 since I got picks in 2023, 2025, 2027, and 2029 from the Timberwolves, along with swaps (I would like to get a swap on the 2023 picks with the Timberwolves picks since the Wolves will probably be better than the Knicks even with Mitchell), and maybe one or two of the extra picks the Knicks have (the Wizards one feels the most appealing to me). If I can’t get what I want I would go to the Heat and see if we could find a 3rd team for Tyler Herro, and if that does not work I can try and either find another trade or keep Mitchell into next season.
Let’s turn to the Knicks perspective on a deal. The city of New York, Madison Square Garden, and Knicks fans everywhere have been dying for a star since the end of the Carmelo Anthony era, and Donovan Mitchell is that star. The Jazz are asking for the godfather offer we talked about in the previous paragraph, so if I am the Knicks, I have to try and get that offer down. R.J. Barrett inclusion in a deal is something the Knicks need to avoid, he is too valuable to a team that would be lacking wings if a deal gets done and with Utah likely not all that interested, I think Barrett stays out of a trade. So a player package of Fournier, Toppin, and Grimes is one that if I am the Knicks I would be willing to do, I like Grimes but to be able to add Donovan Mitchell in a city that is so desperate to add a star is worth it. The picks are what I would worry about. Sending 4 unprotected picks and 3 unprotected swaps is not a business I would want to get involved in. So 3 picks in ‘24, ‘26, and ‘28 is not ideal but better than trading everything. A 2023 swap of my pick and the Timberwolves pick is fine as I would bet on the team’s ability to make the playoffs thus that swap not being so valuable. I would not put 3 more swaps in the deal, definitely avoiding a 2029 swap and trying to avoid a 2027 swap. If Utah asks for 2 of my extra picks, (the Knicks own a protected future Pistons pick, a protected future Wizards pick, a Mavs pick that will likely covey in 2023, and a 2025 Bucks pick) I would definitely avoid including the Dallas pick as it will turn into a player soon therefore helping a team I hope can win soon, and would work to make sure it was just 1 future pick I have to send out, preferably that Bucks pick but the Wizards pick is the one that looks best to me based on future outlook on the team and the future projections on the pick.
A Donovan Mitchell deal is likely and I tried to give you the best perspective as possible on a potential deal. The Knicks are the leader in the clubhouse for a trade as they have the most assets to get a deal done and Mitchell is from around New York City (his dad also works for the Mets). However, the Heat are lurking and mystery teams always pop up. It could be a few weeks before any trade is agreed upon but I would be surprised if Mitchell is not traded.
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