According to ESPN’s Shams Charania, the Heat are open to listening to offers on Jimmy Butler, though Butler’s agent disputed the report. I do think Miami is open to trading Butler, they should be looking to move Butler due to his age, contract situation and the state of their roster. Butler is likely available but a deal could be very complicated to complete.
Let’s start with Butler’s future with the Heat. At 35 years old, Butler is on the books for $48 million this season with a $52 million player option for next season and he wants a new deal. The Heat have been unwilling to offer him a new contract due to his age and some injury problems he has had over the last few seasons. Miami has been to 2 NBA Finals and 3 Eastern Conference Finals with Butler on their roster but the regular season’s have not been all that successful. In 2020, they went to the Finals as a 5 seed and in 2023 they went to the Finals as an 8 seed, in fact Miami has had home court advantage in the first round just once with Butler on their roster, in 2022, a season that ended with a game 7 loss at home to the hated Boston Celtics in the East Finals. After being crushed by Boston in the first round last year, a series Butler did not play in, and sitting at 12-10 this season, Miami does not want to give Butler a new deal and could look to trade him ahead of this year’s deadline.
The list of teams that Charania put out that Butler has interest in playing for are the Houston Rockets, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns. Phoenix is unlikely because of their cap situation. Since the Suns are in the second apron they are unable to bring in more salary then they are sending out and they are unable to aggregate salaries in any trade. For example, even though an offer of Jusuf Nurkic, Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale and Josh Okogie gets Phoenix above Butler’s $48 million, the Suns can’t stack salaries together in a trade. In simpler terms, they cannot trade 2 or more players in the same deal. As a result, a deal would have to include Kevin Durant, Devin Booker or Bradley Beal and it won’t be Durant or Booker so Beal would need to be the guy. With his bloated contract and no-trade clause, no one is making a Beal trade right now. Even if the Heat wanted him and Beal was willing to waive his no trade-clause, Miami and Phoenix would need to find a third team to take on money because the Heat can’t take back more money than they are sending out in a trade because they are over the first apron. Thus, the teams would need to find a third team to take a player like Josh Richardson off of Miami’s books. In simpler terms, Jimmy Butler won’t be a Phoenix Sun.
Let’s talk about teams who could make a Butler trade. I am confident it won’t be the Mavericks because Dallas doesn’t have many expendable mid-sized contracts. They would likely need to include two of Klay Thompson, P.J. Washington or Daniel Gafford along with another player just to match salaries. To me, that does not seem worth it so I am ruling them out. Golden State is another hard deal to make.
The Warriors are hard-capped at $178.1 million for this season. If a team signs a player to the non-tax payer mid-level exception, the biggest mid-level exception, or acquires a player via sign-and-trade, they are hard capped. The Warriors payroll is currently at $176.5 million. Meaning they have just $1.6 million of room below the hard cap. Miami is over the first apron, meaning they cannot take back more salary then they are sending out in any deal. The two sides could do a deal that is Butler for Andrew Wiggins, De’Anthony Melton (who is out for the season with a torn ACL), one of Gary Payton II, Buddy Heild or Kyle Anderson and draft picks. However, Golden State wouldn’t have space to fill their roster if they did this trade and if that is the kind of package Miami wants. There would need to be a third team, which would open the Warriors up to be able to include Jonathan Kuminga in a deal. The Pistons make the most sense since they have $10 million of cap space. They could take in Anderson without having to send any money out the door. The Utah Jazz could offer Drew Eubanks to take on Anderson as well, the Jazz are in a stage of accumulating talent and Anderson is a solid player. However, the best that I came up with was the Hawks. The deal would be Butler, Cody Zeller and David Rody to the Warriors, Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton’s contract and draft picks of some sort to the Heat and Kyle Anderson to the Hawks. It works cap and roster wise. Golden State stays under the hard cap while keeping their roster close to 14 players, Miami takes in less money than they are sending out and the Hawks remain under the luxury tax. It is complicated but there is a way for the Warriors to land Butler.
The Rockets are the simplest team for Butler to land on. The Rockets could send Dillion Brooks, Jabari Smith Jr. and Jeff Green or Jock Landale to the Heat for Butler. I think the combo of Brooks and Smith would be enough to keep picks out of this deal because I don’t think Butler is going to have a robust market. There are plenty of reasons for the Rockets to make a move like this. Butler makes them better right now and the way Houston has been playing, he could make them a real threat in the Western Conference. They also have a bunch of picks they could make a future deal with as well so this would not limit them to that degree. Finally, it would open up more minutes for Tari Eason and Amen Thompson, two guys the Rockets should want on the court because Houston is +11 per 100 possessions in 423 minutes with those two guys on the court this season. There are reasons for the Rockets to make this deal but I am not sure they should. Last year we saw the Thunder hold off on a big trade to shake up their roster so they could see what it looked like in the playoffs. They ended up being really good and this summer addressed some of their issues (rebounding and Josh Giddey’s lack of shooting and defense) via trades and free agency. The Rockets could look to do the same thing this year. Go through the season without making a big move and see what they have. That is the route I expect them to take so don’t hold your breath for a Butler deal, Rockets fans.
There could always be a team that comes out of the middle of nowhere to make a Butler trade and I think the Atlanta Hawks should consider it. The Hawks are good, Trae Young is playing some of the best ball of his career, Jalen Johnson is a monster, Dyson Daniels has been a revolution and Zaccharie Risacher has had a solid rookie season. Butler could take Risacher’s spot in the starting 5, taking pressure off Risacher and giving the Hawks another star next to Young. The Hawks could send the Heat De’Andre Hunter, Clint Capela, Kobe Bufkin, the better of the Lakers and Kings picks in 2025 and a future pick swap. Maybe that is not enough but Hunter is playing some of the best basketball of his career averaging 19.6 points per game off of Atlanta’s bench, Bufkin is a young player who is starting to play real minutes this season and can handle the ball, Capela is an expiring contract the Heat could keep or trade and the Lakers are bad so that pick could end up being pretty high. I am not sure this is enough to convince the Heat to move off of Butler but it could be and the Hawks should make the call to see.
The Jimmy Butler Heat era is likely nearing an end. He wants a new deal and the Heat seem to be comfortable in not giving him one due to his lack of availability in recent seasons. There does not seem to be a deal that is imminent but I do think at some point this season Miami will deal Butler, though it will be complicated to complete.
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