After winning the championship in 2023, the Denver Nuggets had a disappointing ending to their 2024 season being eliminated in the 2nd round by the Minnesota Timberwolves, blowing a 20 point lead in game 7. This season has had its ups and downs. Nikola Jokic could possibly be having his best season and likely won’t win the MVP because of how dominant the Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have been. The Nuggets have some problems and they'll have to figure them out if they want to win the championship.
The non-Jokic minutes have been Denver’s biggest problem this season. In 2,186 minutes with Jokic on the court the Nuggets are +10.6 points per 100 possessions and are scoring 127.3 points per 100 possessions. They would rank first in offense and third in overall net with those numbers. In 1,007 minutes with The Joker off the court, Denver is a -7.7 per 100 and scoring 105.9 points per 100. Their offense would rank last and their overall net would be 28th, only better than the Wizards and Pelicans. They’ve never been able to score with Jokic on the bench. Since the start of the 2018-19 season, in 17,049 minutes with Jokic on the court the Nuggets score 121.1 points per 100, with him off the court in 8,991 minutes, they score 108.1 points per 100. A whole 13 points per 100 possessions less. They have won a championship and been ultra successful during this stretch so I don’t think the Jokic on/off numbers should alarm anyone because that is just how it is for teams with players the caliber of Jokic. However, it is most always a disaster for Denver when Jokic sits.
Jokic is having his best statistical season yet. Averaging a career high 29.0 points, 12.9 rebounds and a career high 10.4 assists per game, Jokic is doing things on an all-time level right now. His three point percentage has jumped from 36% a season ago to 42% this season. He has had a triple-double in 29 games this season, in Denver’s March 7th win he had a double triple-double. His 31 point, 22 assist, 21 rebound performance saw him record one triple-double over the first 27 minutes of the game and another triple-double over the last 26 minutes of the game (the game went into overtime). His defense has improved over the years as well, he is averaging a career high 1.8 steals per game this season. He is becoming one of the all-time great players and the Nuggets roster has held him back this season.
Jamal Murray has been the key to wins and losses. In wins this season he has averaged 23.1 points per game on 49% from the field, 40% from three and has a true shooting percentage of 60%. In losses he has averaged 18.7 points per game on 44% from the field, 38% from three and has a true shooting percentage of 55%. Murray’s level of aggressiveness is key to Denver’s success, in wins he has scored the ball at a high and efficient level and in losses he hasn’t played his best. If the Nuggets want to make a playoff run, they’ll need Murray to play at his best level because they have some depth issues.
The Nuggets starting 5 is good. Murray, Christian Braun, Micheal Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Jokic is a good starting unit. The bench has a lot of worries. Russell Westbrook has been awesome this season but I can’t trust him in the playoffs, he was a disaster for the Clippers a season ago. The rest of the roster is no better, Zeke Nnaji, Julian Strawther, Peyton Watson, DeAndre Jordan and Jalen Pickett are not players who can be relied upon in the playoffs in my opinion and players Denver will have to rely on. I don’t think they are going to make enough shots for Denver to be able to make a serious run at a title.
Maybe I am wrong and Nikola Jokic is that good but I just cannot trust the rest of Denver’s roster to deliver them to a championship. Nikola Jokic is the best player on the planet right now but basketball is a team sport and I don’t think Denver’s team is good enough.
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