Over their last 14 games, the Golden State Warriors are 11-3, have an offensive rating of 118.3 (7th in the NBA) and a defensive rating of 109.6 (3rd in the NBA) leading to a net rating of 8.8 (4th in the NBA). They have wins over the Suns, Lakers, 2 over the Sixers, and 2 in Utah, leading to them climbing up to 9th in the Western Conference though they are just a single percentage point ahead of the Lakers (they have a .526 winning percentage while the Lakers have a .525 winning percentage). They have been playing their best basketball over the last 14 games and have just gotten Chris Paul back. The question is, how real is this?
The biggest key to Golden State’s recent success has been the return of Draymond Green. Green has returned and been the anchor to Golden State’s defense and has become the team's center. According to Cleaning the Glass, entering the game last night, Golden State was 5.4 points per 100 possessions better with Green on the court than they were with him off of the court and were 13 wins better with Green is on the court versus off of the court, Green changes the entire outlook of this Golden State team with his defense and playmaking. Those numbers are similar with Chris Paul as well (5.9 points and 14 wins better with CP3 on the court). This is a significantly better basketball team when Draymond is not punching people and CP3 is healthy. It makes life for Stephen Curry so much easier. For example, when Paul and Green are playing, you can always have one of those guys on the court, leading to Steph never really needing to initiate the offense. He still will, taking the ball out of one of the best 5 to 10 best players in the world is not something that you always want to do, but Curry is the greatest shooter to ever live, him coming off of pin-down screens and into a 3-point shot is still almost always money in the bank. Those guys allow Curry to do that sort of thing more often. The Warriors have also recently changed their starting lineup after Steve Kerr made the tough decision to move Klay Thompson to the bench.
In 148 minutes this season, the Warriors new starting 5 of Steph Curry/Brandin Podziemski/Andrew Wiggins/Jonathan Kuminga/Draymond Green has a +21.6 net rating with an offensive rating of 122.5 and a defensive rating of 100.9. They have begun using Draymond Green at center more and more and it has worked. According to Cleaning the Glass, Green has played 73% of his minutes this season at center. In those minutes, the Warriors are +6.1 per 100 possessions and on a 55 game win pace. When Green is at the 4, the Warriors are +1.5 per 100 possessions and on a 45 win pace. That's a huge difference and a big reason for those splits is the sudden fall of Kevon Looney. In 57 games, Looney has a net rating of -1.5 and his minutes have gone down throughout the season playing just 10.5 minutes per game over Golden State’s recent hot streak (the previous 14 games). The Warriors have been playing much better basketball but I am not totally sold on the Dubs turn around.
While Golden State is 11-3 over their last 14 games, 2 of those losses came against the Clippers and Nuggets, who, to me, are the 2 best teams in the Western Conference. In the Clippers game (a game in which they did not have Kawhi Leonard), the pick and roll of James Harden and Ivica Zubac ate the Warriors defense alive and it was the main reason Golden State lost that game. In the Nuggets game, it was all Nikola Jokic. After the game on his podcast, The Draymond Green Show, Draymond said “Joker gave me hell,” (he also said he thought there were adjustments Golden State could make if they saw Denver in the playoffs) the Warriors have been answerless for Jokic since the return of Jamal Murray last season. These were the 2 games that if the Warriors were really going to turn heads and make more people firm believers that they can make a real playoff run they needed to win, instead they went 0-2 and while I think that they’ll make the playoffs and have a chance to win a round, I cannot say that they are a contender to go deep into the playoffs. However, they still have Stephen Curry on their team and he is still playing at a top 10 player level.
Averaging 27.5 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.2 rebounds, Curry is having yet another monster season as he simply tries to keep Golden State afloat, he has been especially great late in games. In what the NBA considers ‘clutch time,’ the last 5 minutes of a game in which the game is within 5 points, Curry has been as dominant as ever. In 121 ‘clutch’ minutes Curry has 165 points with shooting splits of .51/.48/.95, he is averaging 61.6 points per 100 possessions in clutch moments. Those unbelievably huge numbers. He has the signature game winner in the Suns win on February 10th and even in losses he has hit huge shots to keep the Warriors in the game. When the game gets tight late there is not a player in the league who has been better than number 30 on the Warriors this season.
The Golden State Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season but I am still not sold on how far they can go. That does not change the fact that this is a team that is legitimately turning a corner and looks like a team that you do not want to see in the first round of the NBA playoffs, especially since they have Stephen Curry.
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