When the Bucks traded for Damian Lillard, it was thought he would give them a higher ceiling than Jrue Holiday would. Their belief was that their offense could not keep up with the elite teams in the NBA and trading for Lillard could solve that issue. The defense would be a problem but with Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo protecting the rim, they could get away with it. Then, the season happened.
The Bucks were right about their offense as Cleaning the Glass had Milwaukee ranked 6th in offensive rating last season at 118.9. Yet, the defense was a bigger problem than many realized, as they finished 19th in the NBA last season. They finished 3rd in the Eastern Conference and the bad got worse when they lost Antetokounmpo for their first round series. With Lillard in and out of the lineup in that series, the Bucks were bounced in 6 games by the Indiana Pacers. For what was a season with so much expectations to end the way it did was disappointing, to watch Jrue Holiday capture his 2nd championship with the rival Celtics, made it even worse.
As a result, the Bucks got better this summer, marginally better but better nonetheless. Gary Trent Jr. is an upgrade to Malik Beasley, Delon Wright is an upgrade to Patrick Beverly and Taurean Prince is an upgrade to Jae Crowder. My question is, how much do those players make them better? Do they put them on a level with, oh I don’t know, the Boston Celtics? This roster is very similar to last year's team. A starting 5 of Lillard, Trent, Middleton, Antetokounmpo and Lopez is good but the bench is shaky. Bobby Portis had an up and down year a season ago, Pat Connaughton regressed and the rest are minimum players and young guys who have not proven anything. I have a lot of questions about the Bucks.
Let’s start with the offense. The Bucks are going to score points, they scored a lot of points last year. When Lillard and Antetokounmpo were on the court, the Bucks scored 124 points per 100 possessions in 1,756 minutes according to PBP Stats. If you add Khris Middleton to that group, they scored 127.6 points per 100 possessions in 758 minutes. They were dominant on the offensive side of the court when those 3 guys were out there. The issue was that they weren’t on the court.
If you look at the Celtics with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and whatever 3rd guy you want to choose, they were on the court more than the Bucks top 3 guys were. Tatum, Brown and Derrick White played 1,303 minutes together and Tatum, Brown and Holiday played 1,182 minutes together. Even Tatum, Brown and Kristaps Porzingis played 967 minutes together, 209 more than the Bucks 3 best players did. That is a problem and a problem that I don’t think changes. The Greek Freak has gotten hurt in each of the past 2 playoff runs, missing 2 games of the Miami disappointment in 2023 (and when he got back he was not right) and all of the Indiana series last year. Khris Middleton just had double ankle surgery, meaning he had surgery on both ankles and he has not been healthy since the 2021 championship. Even Lillard, who was healthy last year, missed 2 games in the playoffs and was unavailable a lot during his last 2 seasons in Portland. Health is a major issue for the Bucks and I don’t see how that changes this season.
The defense is another glaring issue. 19th in defensive rating a season ago and they did not do a ton of improving in that area this summer. Delon Wright is awesome and will help but he is only one man, they don’t have the wings to guard Boston’s wings, to guard New York’s wings or to guard Philly’s wings. The rim protection should be good but Lopez took a step back last year. The Bucks rely on the paint protection to carry their defense and yet they allowed the 12th most points in the paint per game last season. Brook Lopez is 36 years old and he is declining, the signs of slippage are there. Their guards are traffic cones, according to Basketball Reference Damian Lillard’s DBPM (defensive box score plus-minus) was -1.3 last season, Trent’s was -1.4. Those are bad numbers, they cannot guard at the point of attack.
There are a lot of reasons to be down on Milwaukee, yet we should not and frankly cannot count them out. We can’t count the Bucks out because they have Giannis Antetokounmpo on their team and that guy is one of the 2 to 3 best players on the planet. He is arguably the best defensive player on the planet, though I would take Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama ahead of him. I think the Bucks should use Giannis more as a screener this season, as his chemistry with Lillard in the pick and roll will be vital to the Bucks success. Last season, Antetokounmpo was a screener on 140 possessions, 7.2% of the total possessions he was on the court. Comparatively, Brook Lopez was a screener on 22.2% of possessions he was on the court. I would like to see Antetokounmpo be more involved as a screener. Giannis has found ways to score even though he does not take 3’s as well. He has averaged over 30 points a game in each of the last 2 seasons and over 28 points a game every season since the 2018-19 season. The Greek Freak has been an All-Star and All-NBA player in each of the last 8 seasons, an All-NBA 1st team member each of the last 6 seasons, a 2-time MVP and a Finals MVP. I don’t believe in Milwaukee’s roster but as long as they have Antetokounmpo, I’ll never count them out.
The more I look at the Eastern Conference, the more intrigued I get. Cleveland and Indiana are both coming off of series wins (multiple series wins for the Pacers) and are legit good, the Magic are a bear to score on, the Knicks and Sixers have stars on their roster and got better this summer and the defending champs and running it back. The conference is better than people think and winning a round is going to be tough. To me, the Bucks are in the middle of where the Cavs, Pacers and Magic are and where the Sixers and Knicks are (the Celtics are in a tier of their own). Could the Bucks be in the Eastern Conference Finals or even the Finals this season? Yes, I think they can be. Am I going to pick them to do that? No, probably not. The Bucks have the best player in the conference. Which is important because no matter who they play in the east, if number 34 is on the court, Milwaukee can say they have the best player. Which to me, puts them in the Philly/New York tier.
The Bucks are one of the most fascinating teams this season. After a disappointing first round exit that included a mid-season coaching change, which Doc Rivers said he wouldn’t wish on his worst enemy (because coaching Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard is just so rough), the Bucks have some pressure on them this season. Another first round exit would be bad for a franchise that does not have a ton of options to make big changes around their best player.
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