The Conference Finals are here. There are 4 teams left as the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, and Miami Heat, all look to advance to the NBA Finals. There are a lot of X-Factors in both series as both should be a lot of fun to watch and all the factors and picks will be broken down and made in this blog.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic against Anthony Davis is the story. How does Jokic hold up defensively and is he able to play better than he did in the bubble when matched up against Davis? Davis averaged 31.2 points and 6.2 rebounds in that series while Jokic averaged 21.8 points and 7.2 rebounds. Since that series, Jokic has become a 2-time MVP and has absolutely dominated in these playoffs, with averages of 30.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 9.7 assists. He has been the best player in the playoffs and thus Denver has been the best team. Jamal Murray needs to be playoff Jamal Murray if Denver wants to win the series, though, and I think we will see vintage Jamal Murray game in the series. Denver also needs Michael Porter Jr. to make his 3 pointers. Porter Jr. isn’t an All-Star level player but he is on a max contract and the Nuggets need him to play like he is on that contract because I think the Lakers have guys who can frustrate Murray and AD has always defended Jokic well. For the Lakers, Austin Reaves has been awesome in the playoffs, hitting a lot of big shots in the Lakers’ wins over the Grizzlies and the Warriors. A lot of the Lakers success has been based off of D’Angelo Russell’s performances, in wins he is averaging 18.4 points per game and in losses he is averaging 10.3 points per game. I expect LeBron and AD to both have big series’ but I think there are ways for Denver to handle the explosiveness of James with the wing defenders the Nuggets have.
My Pick: Nuggets in 6
I think Denver has the better basketball team. Jokic is on a different planet and has absolutely dominated these playoffs, proving he is on a mission to prove everyone just how great he is. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will do a good job at slowing down any of the Lakers guards, which will be a key in this series, as the Lakers need Russell and Reaves to make shots. I also think that the wing defense of Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown, and Jeff Green will be enough for Denver to slow down LeBron James, who has looked human throughout the playoffs, which will allow them to overcome how great Anthony Davis is.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
I can’t believe we are here again, Celtics-Heat. If the Heat had won their game in the Play-In Tournament against the Hawks this would have been a first round series and yet here we are again, in the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami’s run to this point has truly been incredible, they were on the brink of elimination against the Bulls before taking out the team with the best record in the NBA in 5 games, in the Milwaukee Bucks and watching the Knicks offense wilt in the final moments in game 6. If Miami is going to win, they need Jimmy Butler to be the best player on the court, they need him to play the way he did in the Milwaukee series. Miami also needs to make a lot of threes because their offense has the ability to stall out if Butler does not have it going. I also worry about their ability to stay in front of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown the way they did last season with PJ Tucker in Philly and Victor Oladipo out for the season. Miami is also missing Tyler Herro from last season’s team and even though he wasn’t great in last year’s series, Miami will miss his secondary scoring and creation. Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent, and Kyle Lowry all also need to have big series’ for the Heat to win.
My Pick: Celtics in 6
You have to assume Boston will let one or two weirdo games get away from them like they seemingly always do but the talent discrepancy between these two teams is big. I think the Celtics will start the two bigs the way they did at the of the Sixers series which will really help their interior defense. Boston also has the better quality and quantity of guard play with Herro being out. Marcus Smart, Derrick White, and Malcolm Brogdon against Vincent and Lowry favors Boston and that is big because Miami probably had the better guard play last season. I expect Boston to win the series because they have a better team than the Heat do but they will probably make it harder on themselves than necessary.
The final four teams have made it and they are the exact same from the 2020 bubble, the question is are these playoffs also a ‘Mickey Mouse’ playoffs?
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