The NBA Finals are here and it will be the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets facing off as the winner gets to take home the NBA crown. Both teams had very different paths of getting here so I will dive into that while breaking down how both teams can win the series as well, and a pick will be made.
After an up and down regular season the Miami Heat had to get through the Play-In Tournament to just make the playoffs. They matched up with the Hawks and became the first 7 seed to lose in the 7-8 play-in game. As a result, they had to take on the Bulls with their season on the line. With the game tied at 87, Coby White hit a 3 pointer to put the Bulls up 3 with 3:48 to go in the game. Miami proceeded to end the game on a 15-1 run and won 102-91, advancing to play the Bucks in the first round. Most everyone expected the Bucks to take care of the Heat. For me, that expectation did not change when Giannis Antetokounmpo got hurt because Milwaukee had the best record in the league and were out for blood after losing to the Celtics last season. That did not matter, as even when the Heat lost Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo to injuries in the series, and even as Giannis returned, the Heat took the Bucks out in 5 games, with the Bucks blowing double digit leads in the 4th quarter of both games 4 and 5. I do have to mention Jimmy Butler’s 56 point masterpiece in game 4 that gave the Heat a 3-1 series lead and made me finally think that Miami was going to win the series. In the second round, the Heat faced an upstart Knicks team that was led by Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. Brunson was awesome, Randle disappeared and when the Heat almost took game 2 from the Knicks without Jimmy Butler, you knew the series was over. In the Conference Finals came the Boston Celtics, the very team who eliminated the Heat last season. Games 1 and 2 both took place in Boston and Miami took both games as, very much like the Bucks offense did, the Celtics offense withered away in the fourth quarter in both games. After the Heat blew the doors off of the Celtics in game 3, it looked like Boston would roll over and get swept. Only, the Celtics had different plans as their defense really locked in and their 3 pointers really started to fall in games 4 and 5 as Boston cut the series from 3-0 to 3-2, looking to be the first team to ever win a series after trailing 3 games to none. In game 6, the Celtics looked to be in control of the game with a 10 point lead with just 4:56 left and a 9 point lead with 2:47 left. Then, Butler looked like he was having his finest moment as he dragged Miami back into a lead after he sank 3 free throws with 3 seconds left to give the Heat a 1 point lead. However, a tip in from Boston’s Derrick White ended those dreams and there would be game 7 back in Boston. Miami was on the brink of the biggest collapse in NBA history but an early rolled ankle from Jayson Tatum, 8 Jaylen Brown turnovers, and a Caleb Martin masterclass ensured that it would not happen and the Miami Heat advanced to the NBA Finals.
The Denver Nuggets path to the NBA Finals was a lot simpler and a lot more conventional. After trucking through the regular season, the Nuggets were the number 1 seed in the Western Conference. In round 1, Denver took on the Minnesota Timberwolves. They obliterated the Wolves in 5 games, almost sweeping the series as the Timberwolves were epically choking in game 4 and one missed Nikola Jokic free throw meant overtime where Anthony Edwards would not let his team get swept. However, Denver took out the Wolves in 5. In round 2, Denver took on the Phoenix Suns, one of the favorites to win the Western Conference. After dominating the Suns in games 1 and 2 in Denver, the series shifted back to Phoenix where Devin Booker scored 47 points in game 3 and 36 points in game 4 to tie the series at 2 games a piece. However, the Nuggets made sure the Suns would not really get into the series, smoking Phoenix in games 5 and 6, making their way back to the Conference Finals, where the Los Angeles Lakers were waiting. The 4 game sweep was closer than a sweep would indicate but Laker chokes in games 2 and 4 led the Nuggets to their first NBA Finals in franchise history.
There are a lot of keys to this series. The first is how Miami guards Nikola Jokic. The obvious answer is Bam Adebayo, and I think Bam is one of the best options in the league to guard Jokic but I also do not think there is a good answer to guarding the 2-time MVP. Another key is can Miami make their 3s similarly to the way they did in the Milwaukee and Boston series’. If they do, the Heat will have a real chance to win this series because Miami was white hot from 3 in both of those series, which in large part is why they won both of them. I think Denver’s best bet to guard Jimmy Butler is Aaron Gordon. If you watched any of the Eastern Conference Finals, you’d know that Butler struggled when Jayson Tatum took on the assignment of guarding due to his size and length, I think Gordon can cause similar frustrations for Butler. How does Miami guard Jamal Murray is another key to this series, I think they’ll need to see how Denver reacts to their zone because if the Heat have any chance at winning they’ll need to limit both Jokic and Murray’s production because I don’t think they can score with those two and I don’t think they can defend either of them one on one.
The pick is Nuggets in 6. I think Miami absolutely can win the series, they have shown they are too mentally tough to just roll over but the Nuggets have been the best team in the NBA for the entire postseason. Tyler Herro is expected to return in game 3 but I am not sure that helps Miami enough to actually push them over the top and win this series. The Nuggets have the best player on the best team right now and I expect them to win this series and win their first NBA championship.
The NBA Finals are here and while I am upset the Celtics will not be participating, this should be a really fun series between the two teams who have been the best all playoffs. The Heat have had the tougher road to get here and the most unconventional road we have ever seen but I just think Denver is that much better than the Heat are. Game 1 is Thursday at 8:30pm/EST on ABC.
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