The regular season has come to a close and the Play-In Tournament has arrived. The play-in decides who will be the 7th and 8th seeds in the playoffs. The 7th and 8th seeds play and the winner gets the 7th seed while the loser hosts the winner of the 9/10 game. In simpler terms, it is double elimination for the 7th and 8th seeds and single elimination for the 9th and 10th seeds. With that, let’s dive in.
A rematch of the first round from last season (a series the Heat won in 5), Hawks-Heat is also a matchup of the last 2 Eastern Conference Finals losers. It is an interesting game; the Hawks were 7th in offense this season while the Heat were 9th in defense. However, over the last 15 games, the Heat defense has been 20th in the sport, meanwhile Atlanta’s offense is 5th. Meanwhile on the other side of the court, the Heat can’t score (25th in offensive rating) and the Hawks can’t defend (22nd in defensive rating). The star matchup is fascinating in this game. Jimmy Butler and Trae Young are very different players. Trae Young doesn’t play defense and turns the ball over, Butler plays defense and does not turn it over. Young, however, can get it going more than Butler can and is more lethal from 3-point range, which leads to more mistakes than Butler makes. Dejounte Murray vs. Tyler Herro is a fascinating matchup as well, can Murray contain Herro enough to let the Hawks hang in the game?
My pick: Heat
I really want to pick the Hawks, I think they matchup really well with Miami and have a good opportunity to exploit some mismatches, especially at point guard with the guards Atlanta has. However, picking against Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in this setting against this Hawks team is not something I am going to do. Adebayo is so good and impactful defensively as well that I think that he can hide how Young and Murray will crush Herro, Gabe Vincent, and Kyle Lowry. Finally, if this game is close (and I think it will be), I’ll take my chances with Jimmy Buckets, no matter how icey ‘Ice Trae’ gets.
There are so many storylines in this game. Let’s start with the D’Angelo Russell revenge. Russell spent parts of the last 4 seasons with the Timberwolves but the team traded him to the Lakers at this past trade deadline as a part of the 3-team deal that landed the Wolves Mike Conley from the Jazz. Russell likely wants revenge over his former team. This could also be the game where Anthony Edwards lets the world know ‘I’m here.’ Edwards has had a huge breakout season averaging career highs in points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals, not to mention he is shooting a career best from the field and beyond the 3 point line. He has had a career year in every sense of it. This would be a picture perfect capping to that, a postseason game, in Los Angeles, against the Lakers, with LeBron James and Anthony Davis on their team, in a spot where there are no other games on. However, Jaden McDaniels breaking his hand really dampens that so…
My pick: Lakers
With McDaniels out and there being friction with Rudy Gobert punching Kyle Anderson during a timeout in Minnesota’s win Sunday against the Pelicans, I find it hard to believe the Wolves will beat the Lakers, who are playing their best basketball in a long time. LeBron James isn’t who he was but he is still LeBron James and even in year 20 looks like one of the 10 best players in the sport. However, Anthony Davis has been their best player for this past stretch since LeBron returned from his foot injury (shoutout to the LeBron James of foot doctors) and Davis also dominated the Wolves last time these two teams played on March 31st, scoring 38 points and grabbing 17 rebounds. While it would be a great story for Anthony Edwards to have his moment on Tuesday night, I don’t see it happening and I expect the Lakers to win a fun game.
Both these teams are disappointed how their seasons went, as both made the playoffs last season and now are trying to sneak in through the Play-In Tournament. This should be a low scoring game as both teams are really good defensively, Chicago finished 5th in defensive rating while Toronto finished 11th. Neither team is very good at the guard spot as Toronto’s depth behind Fred Van-Vleet is non-existent and with Van-Vleet having a down season, Toronto has not gotten enough production from that spot. Meanwhile for the Bulls, the depth is solid, Patrick Beverly, Alex Caruso, Ayo Dosunmu, and Coby White (who is playing the best basketball of his career), all take turns playing the point guard position, yet the top guard is not there with Lonzo Ball missing the entire season (and likely next season as well). The battle at the center spot is also something to keep an eye on as well to see how Nikola Vucevic and Jakob Poeltl matchup.
My pick: Bulls
I have two reasons to pick the Bulls. Number 1; DeMar DeRozan. Traded by the Raptors in 2019, that did not sit well with DeRozan, and I think this is his moment for revenge. Averaging 24.5 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game this season, DeRozan has not been as good as he was last season, but he has still had a really good season and will be looking for blood on Wednesday night. Number 2; I think Toronto has quit on Nick Nurse. Watching the Raptors play over the last few days, they do not play very hard anymore and that is a bad look for any coach. For those two reasons, I think the Bulls get the win.
The Thunder are going to have the best player on the court in this game with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA has had a massive season with averages of 31.4 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.8 rebounds on 51% from the field. Oklahoma City’s roster is young and talented. Jalen Williams is going to make All-NBA first team, the Santa Clara product looks like he is going to have a really good NBA career. Josh Giddey has also shown real strides this season as a scorer and shooter with his field goal, 3 point, 2 point, and free throw percentage all up this season from his rookie season. However, their lack of size is a huge concern in this game when facing Jonas Valančiūnas. Seeing Lu Dort back in the postseason will be fun and watching Isaiah Joe hit 3s in the postseason will be fun too.
My pick: Pelicans
Even though Gilgeous-Alexander will be the best player, I think the Pelicans have the better team, even without Zion Williamson. I have 3 reasons that I think the Pelicans will win this game. Number 1: Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. Ingram and McCollum are a really solid duo and have played in a number of big games in their careers and I think New Orleans having 2 scoring punches like that will cause the Thunder some problems. Number 2: the size of the Pelicans. We already talked about this but a 20 and 20 game from Valančiūnas isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. Number 3: length on the wing. New Orleans has a bunch of guys, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, and Josh Richardson to name a few, that they can throw at SGA and Giddey to frustrate them with their length.
If the results play out like I am picking them to, the matchups will be Bulls-Hawks and Pelicans-Timberwolves (I would pick the Hawks and Pelicans in those games).
The Play-In Tournament is here so let’s strap in and enjoy the show, as these 8 teams battle it out for the last 4 playoff spots. Also, a lot of the AT&T girl Lily because the play-in is sponsored by AT&T this year so I am sure we will see her in a bunch of commercials.
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