The NBA Finals are here. It’ll be the 50-32 Dallas Mavericks against the 64-18 Boston Celtics. There are a ton of storylines in this series, Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic vs. Kristaps Porzingis, Kyrie Irving vs. the City of Boston, among others. The Celtics have been the best team all season, can Luka and Kyrie spoil it for them?
After an embarrassing end to last season, that resulted in the Mavericks missing not just the playoffs but the play-in as well, Dallas was able to keep their first round pick, 10th overall (it had been top 10 protected to the New York Knicks). With that selection, they traded back and selected Dereck Lively II at number 12 overall and he has become such an important piece next to Luka and Kyrie. Coming off the bench in the playoffs, Lively had averaged 8.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks and his ability to pass coming off a roll in the pick and roll has given the Mavericks another dimension to their offense. After acquiring Grant Williams in a sign-and-trade this summer, with these same Celtics, Dallas saw that Williams was not a good fit and in February traded him, along with a future pick, for P.J. Washington. Washington has been a better fit than any could have imagined and along with Daniel Gafford, acquired from the Wizards in a 3-team trade that the Thunder were involved in, has changed Dallas’ team. With a net rating of +2.1, Dallas was 15th in the league in that stat while being 8th in offense and 18th in defense.
As Dallas entered the playoffs as the 5th seed, they are the 2nd team in a row to win their conference without a single series with home court advantage (Miami did it last season). In the first round, they took on the Clippers. After losing game 1, the Mavericks stormed back to take game 2 and 3 before dropping game 4 at home. Behind 35, 10, and 7 from Luka in game 5, the Mavericks beat L.A. by 30 in game 5 and eliminated the Clippers back home in game 6. The 2nd round series against the Thunder followed the same timeline, lose game 1 on the road, win 2 in a row, drop game 4 at home, win game 5 on the road, and win game 6 at home by one possession and advance. The Western Conference Finals were closer than the 4-1 series score indicates. The first 3 games all followed the same script, the Timberwolves kept the game close throughout but at the end, they just had no answer for Luka and Kyrie late in the game. Game 4 swung the other way as the Timberwolves won the game and forced a game 5 back in Minnesota, where they laid an egg and were eliminated in a 124-103 loss.
After going down 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals last season, the Celtics battled all the way back to tie the series up behind a Derrick White buzzer beater in game 6. In game 7, after Jayson Tatum sprained his ankle early in the game, they were blown off the court and lost 103-84 being eliminated by the Heat. As a result, President of Basketball Operations Brad Stevens got to work acquiring Kristaps Porzingis from the Wizards and Jrue Holiday from the Trail Blazers, after he was sent to Portland as a part of the Dame Lillard trade. In those deals he sent Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, and Marcus Smart (known by many as the heart and soul of the team) out the door, Grant Williams was also sent packing in a different trade, as we previously discussed. The Celtics were dominant all season long, going 64-18 with a net rating of +11.7, which is among the top 5 of all time, they also had the greatest offensive rating of all time of 122.2 and ranked 2nd in defense this season. In the regular season and playoffs they had 3 wins of 50 or more points, the most in NBA history, 19 wins of 20 or more points, and 42 wins of 10 or more points and led by at least 20 in 47 games this season. They were historically good and that carried over into the playoffs.
In round 1, Boston got their rematch with the Miami Heat, this time however Miami did not have Jimmy Butler. The Celtics, in dominant fashion, took the Heat out in 5, there was no sweep due to Miami hitting 23 threes in game 2 and stealing the game. In round 2, the Celtics took on the Cavs. They, again, lost game 2 at home after a game 1 win and after a game 3 win, Cleveland lost Donovan Mitchell for the series. Boston took out the Cavs in 5 games. In the Eastern Conference Finals, Boston took on the Indiana Pacers. Game 1 was an all-time classic as Boston pulled the game out by the skin of their teeth in overtime after Jaylen Brown hit a game tying 3 with 5.7 seconds left in regulation. In game 2, Boston pulled away later after Tyrese Haliburton re-injured his hamstring, he missed the remainder of the series. The Celtics ended up winning games 3 and 4 with impressive comebacks, both on the road, and swept their way to the Finals.
There are a lot of areas where this is going to be decided. Luka Doncic is the best player in the series, of that there is no question. However, enough with this whole Jayson Tatum is not the 2nd best. In the conference finals, Tatum averaged 30.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 6.3 assists, he was the best player on the court and probably should have been the MVP of the series. He is better than Jaylen Brown and he is better than Kyrie Irving.
Dallas’ offense is not the most complex but boy is it effective. It consists of a ton of pick and roll between Doncic and Irving with Lively and Gafford with shooters in both corners. I expect Boston to guard the centers with Tatum and put Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis on either Derrick Jones Jr. or P.J. Washington, who will be spaced in the corners. This will allow Boston to switch the pick and roll, allowing for Tatum to switch onto the guard and whoever was guarding the guard to switch onto the rolling big. This will, in theory, make it more challenging for there to be a pass to the rolling big and for the big to make the next pass, something Lively in particular is really good at. Of course, this is not full proof, Dallas can screen with the guys in the corner and Luka has seen this coverage a million times so this is not a way to shut down Doncic but it is something I expect Boston to run.
Kristaps Porzingis is expected to be ready for this series and that is big for the Celtics. While they have not missed a beat Boston will be better with getting Porzingis back who has been out since game 4 of the Miami series with a calf strain. There have been times where the Celtics have been crushed in the paint and getting Porzingis’ rim protection back will be huge for them. K.P. also gives Boston’s offense a different dimension than Al Horford does. First, he allows the Celtics to play 5 out for 48 minutes, opening up driving lanes and forcing rim protectors to spread to the perimeter. Without him, Boston cannot do that as Xaiver Tillman and Luke Kornet don’t give the Celtics that boost. However, Porzingis also lifts Boston in a variety of other ways that Horford can’t. He stretches the floor farther than Al does, he is an elite post up player (which is crazy considering what he once was), and he is a real lob threat when he rolls to the rim, something Boston has been missing without him.
From the All-Star break to the end of the regular season, Dallas’ defense was good, solid but nothing special, with a defensive rating of 112.1 good enough for 13th in that span. In the playoffs, they have been better, 111.1 defensive rating ranked 7th in the playoffs. It is a really good defense but not an elite one. One thing Dallas will need to stress is defending the 3 point line because the Celtics take a lot of them. 47.4% of Boston’s shots in the playoffs have come from beyond the 3 point line and that is not an accident. The Celtics want to take a ton of 3s and if they get going from downtown they are unbeatable. Drive-and-kicks are going to be another key to this series, Boston leads the playoffs in shooting percentage off drives at 55.2%, according to Second Spectrum. The Celtics are at their best when they get the ball into the paint and kick it out for open 3s. The Celtics have statistically the greatest offense of all time and there is a reason for it.
My pick is Celtics in 6. The Celtics have not just been the best team all season, they have been historically dominant. Luka being the best player in the series is important and he and Kyrie won’t let the Mavericks lose easily but this Celtics team, to me, is better, especially if/when they get Porzingis back. The different ways Boston’s offense can beat you along with the elite defense they have headed by one of the greatest defensive backcourts we have ever seen, the time is now for Boston. The clutch time numbers are awesome as well. The NBA defines clutch time as the final 5 minutes in a game that is within 5 points. Boston’s net rating in those spots is 43.9. They have answered every bell this season and the only thing that is left for them to capture is banner 18.
The NBA Finals are set and it should be a really fun series. The Celtics have been the best team all season while Dallas has been awesome in these playoffs. The Kyrie in Boston storyline is one that I did not talk about but boy oh boy will that be what everyone is talking about. We only have a maximum of 7 games left in the season so enjoy them because there is only so much basketball left.
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