The Conference Finals are here. There are 4 teams left as the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Golden State Warriors, and Dallas Mavericks all look to advance to the NBA Finals. There are a lot of X-Factors in both series as both should be a lot of fun to watch and all the factors and picks will be broken down and made in this blog.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
The rematch from the bubble is one that I am sure a lot of the guys on this Celtic team that were on that team that lost to the Heat in 6 games wanted badly. These are 2 of the top 5 defenses in the NBA leading to this series being a grind for both sides so make sure to bet the under if you are into that sort of thing. Turnovers are going to be a massive factor on both sides. The Heat were 28th in turnover percentage this season turning at a rate of 14.9% per 100 possessions. That number has decreased in the playoffs to 14.2% but they have also been playing the 26th ranked defense in the first round and the 12th ranked defense in the 2nd round so playing Boston, the best defense in the regular season, might push those turnovers back up a tad. Meanwhile the Celtics have been a bit sloppy at times with the turnovers but overall they have been good this season at limiting those turnovers. It will be very important for the Celtics to limit the turnovers and make sure that the Heat cannot get out in transition because the Heat force the 3rd most turnovers per game and their half court offense is not very good. If the Heat are going to win they will need a big series from Tyler Herro. Herro had a big season for Miami averaging 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists while winning the Sixth Man of the Year award this season. However, he was not good in the Sixers series averaging 12.6 points in the final 5 games of the series after putting up 25 points in game 1.
My Pick: Celtics in 6
I think Boston is the better team with the best player in the series. They are tougher, both physically and mentally then they were in the bubble, they do not have a defensive weak point to attack like they did when Kemba Walker and Brad Wanamaker were handling the point guard minutes, and the 2 stars (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown) are stronger, faster, and better then they were in the bubble series. If the Celtics can limit their turnovers, they should take care of the Heat and advance to the NBA Finals.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
This was supposed to be Warriors-Suns but then the Suns got blown out by 33 points in game 7 and now have to take a serious look in the mirror after a disappointing end to an otherwise very successful season. However, the Suns are not playing so we move on to Mavs-Warriors. The 3 ball is going to be the story of the series as these teams rank 1st and 3rd in 3 point attempts per game in the playoffs. The defenses are similar rating wise in the playoffs but the Warriors are not expected to have either Gary Payton II or Andre Iguodala in this series so those 2 players, who would definitely help the cause of guarding Luka Doncic, will be missed a lot. One big advantage the Mavericks have is that they have Luka Doncic. In the last series against the Suns, Doncic averaged 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists in 7 games, including 27 first half points, the same amount the Suns had (the Mavs led 57-27 after the first half). I will remind you that the Suns have the player who finished 2nd in Defensive Player of the Year voting on their team and it did not matter, Doncic is that good. Steph needs to be awesome if the Warriors are going to win this series to try and do the best he can to help offset some of the scoring Luka gives the Mavericks while Draymond Green will do the passing that Luka provides for Dallas. The key to the series, in my opinion, is which backcourt behind the two stars is better; Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole or Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson. How much will each provide scoring wise and how can each be exploited more on the defensive end?
My Pick: Mavericks in 7
I think this series goes the distance and I am not betting against Luka Doncic in a game 7 situation. The 3 and D wings of Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith and Maxi Kleber to go along with the guards and the fact the Golden State does not have a lot of size so Dallas will be able to play small for more than they previously have will be a key in this series and I think that the Mavericks, who are playing great basketball as of late, wins the series.
These next 2 weeks of the Conference Finals should be a lot of fun to watch and I am excited to see how each series plays out and see if some of the things I pointed out become true. Also to see if my finals pick of Celtics-Mavericks will turn out to be true.
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