In 2023, the Denver Nuggets climbed the NBA’s mountain top behind a deadly pick and roll game, a bunch of great role players and the best player in the league. However, over the last two offseasons, Denver has watched key championship contributors Bruce Brown, Jeff Green and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope depart. They have enlisted a bunch of young players like Christain Braun, Payton Watson, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson and Jalen Pickett to help replace those guys and veterans like Dario Saric and, of course, Russell Westbrook. What should we expect of Denver this season?
We all remember how last season ended for the Nuggets, with a blown 20 point lead in game 7 of round 2 against the Timberwolves and there are a lot of questions surrounding this team entering the season. Let’s start with replacing KCP. This is a huge loss for the Nuggets as for the last 2 seasons, Caldwell-Pope was a key contributor for the Nuggets. He was the perfect 5th starter with Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon. His spacing and defense made him a perfect fit in Denver and now the Nuggets have to replace him. Christian Braun is a good start, as a key bench piece for the Nuggets the last 2 seasons he played a big part in the 2023 championship and he shot 38% from 3 last season. While he is not the player Caldwell-Pope is, Braun is someone that can step up and be a solid 5th starter for Denver next season. While Braun can play KCP’s minutes, who plays Braun’s minutes? Peyton Watson was played off the court in the Minnesota series because of his shooting and Tyson and Pickett haven’t shown anything on the NBA level. Is Russell Westbrook someone they want to rely on? We all saw him in the Clippers-Mavericks series a year ago where he was unplayable shooting 26% in the series, in no way can Denver rely on Westbrook to play a meaningful role in a playoff series. The depth on this Nuggets team is one that I worry about, they’ll need Julian Strawther to step up in a big way in year 2 after he failed to crack the rotation last season.
Even with all the concerns about the depth, the Nuggets are still going to be one of the best teams in the NBA next season. They’ll be so good because they have Nikola Jokic on their team. The 3-time MVP is the best player on planet earth. We all know his counting stats, averaging 26.1 points, 12.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game over the last 4 seasons but the on/off numbers are the most jarring. According to PBP Stats, over the last 4 seasons, the Nuggets have been one of the best teams when Jokic is on the court, with a 9.9 net rating, and one of the worst when he is off the court, with a -7.3 net rating. This is the best player in the world and he is the main reason why Denver still has title aspirations.
Beyond Jokic, a lot of what the Nuggets do will come down to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Aaron Gordon is a really good player, who is a perfect fit with The Joker and someone that I don’t worry about in Denver. However, Murray and MPJ are more important to Denver’s success than Gordon is. Both are really good players who can score the ball in bunches, both players are on max contracts for a reason. Yet, I still have questions about both. Injuries are something that both players have dealt with in the past. Calf and elbow issues caused Murray issues during the playoffs last season (and the Olympics during his time with Team Canada) and Porter has dealt with back issues his entire career. These are both really good players but Denver needs them to be on the court if they are going to win the Western Conference this season.
I think the Thunder are the best team in the west, a solid amount above everyone else. Yet, in the playoffs, I have my worries about OKC, we saw their warts last season and I am unsure of how much those issues were solved entering this season. As a result, the Nuggets have a chance to compete in the Western Conference. Jokic is the best player on the planet and if Murray and Porter can play at a high level like they have in the past, Denver’s 3 best is as good as anyones in the NBA. The Towns trade makes me worry about the Wolves less if I am Denver but that is still a really good team that can cause a lot of problems. Their defense is that good and the Mavericks are the defending Western Conference champs. The top of the west has gotten better and Denver has gotten worse since the championship but that does not mean we should count the Nuggets out.
The 2023 champion Nuggets are not as good as they once were, they missed Bruce Brown a lot last year and they will miss Kentavious Caldwell-Pope a lot this year. However, this team is still really good with the best player on planet earth on it. They have bet on a lot of young players to become key contributors and they’ll need those guys to step up in a big way this season.
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