Last Wednesday, the Milwaukee Bucks traded for Damian Lillard, in doing so, they traded Jrue Holiday to the Portland Trail Blazers. Then on Sunday, Portland flipped Holiday to the Boston Celtics. The arms race in the East is on, as Boston and Milwaukee seem to have separated themselves from the rest of the pack on paper. There are a lot of talented teams in the Eastern Conference so the question is; are the Bucks and Celtics really on a collision course?
We had this similar feeling for most of last season, the Bucks and Celtics were the 2 best teams in the conference and that they were on a collision course for the Eastern Conference Finals. The Miami Heat ruined that, as they took the Bucks out in 5 games in the first round and eliminated the Celtics in 7 games in those very Eastern Conference Finals. If that taught us anything, it should be that we can never count out the Miami Heat, they made a run to the Finals as an 8 seed, never count out Pat Riley, Erik Spoelstra, and Heat Culture. That said, I think Miami got worse this summer losing Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. They can replace Strus with Duncan Robinson and Josh Richardson but Vincent is a big loss. Kyle Lowry is not a starting point guard anymore and Tyler Herro isn’t any kind of point guard. They don’t have a starting point guard on the roster, I know Vincent is not perfect but he’s good and losing him is a huge blow for the Heat. Miami is built around Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, a duo that has had about as much success a duo can have together without winning the championship. 2 trips to the Finals, and 3 to the Eastern Conference Finals is a wildly successful 4 year stretch, but again, they have not won a ring. The depth is a concern to me though, as I mentioned, Lowry is not the player he was and is much more effective in a backup role, Kevin Love was not good for most of last season, Thomas Bryant was unplayable for Denver in the playoffs, and Nikola Jovic and Jamie Jaquez Jr. are unproven players. They are betting on a lot of players who have a lot of question marks and that is a worry for me. However, I’ll never count out the Miami Heat again so they are a threat.
Every time the 76ers lose a game 7 in the 2nd round it is worse than the last one. In 2019, Kawhi hits the buzzer beater and the Sixers are bounced in heartbreaking fashion. In 2021, Ben Simmons passed the ball under the basket instead of going up for the layup because he was scared to get fouled. Finally, last year, aftering being up 3-2 in the series, they watched Jayson Tatum takeover the last 5 quarters of the series, attacking their MVP center every chance he got, as Tatum eliminated the Sixers for the 3rd time in his career. Boston and Milwaukee were both better than the 76ers and both those teams decided they were not good enough so they went all in. Philly signed Mo Bamba, Patrick Beverley, Danny Green, and Kelly Oubre Jr. and called it an offseason. That is not good enough and I haven’t even mentioned the James Harden mess as he tries to get himself traded for the 3rd time in 3 years. This roster is pretty much identical to last year’s team with a few tweaks, and that is if Harden wasn’t throwing another fit. I like Nick Nurse as the new coach, so long he doesn’t run Embiid into the ground, and think he is an upgrade over Doc Rivers, but, to me, this roster is not on the level of a Boston or a Milwaukee.
Last year I said the Cleveland Cavaliers were a year away from truly competing in the Eastern Conference, well the year has come and they are falling behind. I like their offseason moves, adding Max Strus and Georges Niang while re-signing Caris LeVert is a solid summer but Boston and Milwaukee are on another tier than Cleveland is and with Donovan Mitchell’s free agency fast approaching, there are concerns about the Cavaliers. The Knicks are being patient about acquiring a superstar and that is for good reason. If the situation in Philadelphia goes south, the team in the Meca will be ready to pounce. For this year’s team, they should be back in playoff contention and maybe fighting for the 2nd round. The Hawks are frisky, they showed a real fight in the first round against Boston last year, taking the Celtics to 6 games. While I do not think the roster is where it needs to be from a talent angle, they are well coached and have ways to upgrade their team in-season if needed (Pascal Siakam). The Brooklyn Nets are in a weird spot, they do not control any of their own picks so tanking is not an option but they are far away from winning anything real so they are gonna sit in the middle and try to win every game they can. They are likely a play-in team at best this year. All of these teams are fighting to win the conference, yet, on paper, the Celtics and Bucks seem to have separated themselves from everyone else.
Both of these teams thought they were the best in the conference and the league last year, then the Miami Heat eliminated both of them. As a result, they determined that they were not good enough. Both teams late game offense became a huge issue as stagnation and turnovers plagued both teams. As I said on Friday, Lillard solves that for the Bucks, he is an elite half court offense by himself, the way he stretches out the defense, and the pick and roll with him and Giannis will be so dominant that late game offense shouldn’t be a huge issue for the Bucks. Their perimeter defense could be an issue, though it sneaky already was. They are going to rely on Pat Connaughton, Marjon Beauchamp, and Malik Beasley to be the starting 2-guard with Lillard, Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez. Their best option is Connaughton, he is the most ready now on both sides of the court but I assume they want Beauchamp to become the guy. His defense is really solid and if he can develop the 3 pointer, he can become a real player for them. The depth is a concern, they are going to rely on Jae Crowder more than they did last year and Beasley, Cam Payne, and Bobby Portis will likely round out the rotation. There are major defensive questions about the bench but this is a really good basketball team with the best rim protecting duo in the NBA.
The Boston Celtics have come within 6 wins of a championship 4 times dating back to 2018 and this is the best team they have had during the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era. Let’s start with Tatum and Brown, who are at the peak of their powers right now. They are one of the best duo’s in the league on both sides of the court as both guys can take over a game at any given moment. Boston also made 2 huge trades this summer, acquiring Kristaps Porzingis and 2 first round picks (number 25 in June’s draft and the 2024 Warriors pick) for Marcus Smart, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, and the 35th pick in this past draft, in a 3 team trade with the Wizards and Grizzlies. On Sunday, they sent out Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon, and 2 first round picks (2024 Warriors and their own 2029 unprotected) to the Portland Trail Blazers for Jrue Holiday. These are both huge upgrades to what they had last season and will help them immensely on both sides of the court. Boston has the best top 6 in the league with Tatum, Brown, Holiday, Pozingis, Derrick White, and Al Horford. Their defense is going to be elite, what could hold the Celtics back is their late game execution. The playoff numbers are bad for Jrue Holiday; he was at 39% from the field and 30% from 3 in his three years with the Bucks (40 games) and Porzingis had played in just 10 career playoff games (in 2020 and 2021 with the Mavericks). As a result, I worry about Boston’s late game playoff offense but adding Porzingis should give them another dimension when Tatum and Brown have the ball and they have to hope that having the ball less helps Holiday’s shooting.
There are a bunch of good teams in the Eastern Conference as we enter the 2023-24 season but it feels that 2 of these teams are better than the rest… at least they are on paper. The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks seem to have started an arms race at the top of the Eastern Conference, will anyone else join?
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