The day is June 22nd, 2021, the Phoenix Suns are playing host to the Los Angeles Clippers in game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, the Suns lead the series 1-0. The score is 103-102 Clippers with 0.9 seconds left and the Suns Jae Crowder is inbounding the ball underneath the basket. He throws a lob pass to Deandre Ayton who slammed it in and the Suns won the game 104-103. Phoenix would advance to the NBA Finals and lose in 6 games to the Milwaukee Bucks. Fast forward a year and the Suns are likely losing Ayton in free agency and might not be as great of shape as they seemed.
This past season the Suns won 64 games, led by Chris Paul and Devin Booker, Phoenix went into the playoffs as the number 1 overall seed. In round 1 they took out the 36 win, yet pesky, New Orleans Pelicans in 6 games. In round 2, they took a 3-2 lead heading back to Dallas for game 6 against the Mavericks. They would lose the game, 113-86, and then go back home for game 7, a game they would get embarrassed in 123-90, a game in the first half they would score the same amount of points as Luka Doncic did (27). If you are counting the agragit of the 2 games that would be 236-176 over the 2 game span. They got bullied by a team they were better than. A 64 win season ripped up into shreds as the Suns blew a 2-0 lead and a 3-2 lead and were sent home in the second round. Chris Paul is 37, Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet’s new contracts kick in this season, Ayton is a restricted free agent, and Robert Sarver still seems unwilling to spend money. Where do the Suns go from here?
Let’s start with Ayton’s free agency. Teams with projected cap space this summer are the Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, and Portland Trail Blazers. He is unlikely to just outright sign somewhere else since he is restricted so a sign and trade is what will likely happen. That includes a bunch of different teams who are not close to the hard cap but the team I want to focus on is the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers are one of the most interesting teams to watch as we enter the summer and one player they could try and snag is Ayton. They already have Myles Turner at center but Ayton is younger, more durable, and a better player than Turner is. I am not sure what else the Pacers would need to include in a deal but I think Ayton would be a huge addition for Indiana to play with Tyrese Haliburton. Other teams that could try and add Ayton to their team are the Pistons, Hornets, and Knicks, all could use a talent upgrade at center and all have the ability to acquire the player based on the cap.
The Suns are good, good front line players, good depth, well coached, and have won in the playoffs. However, now there are a lot of questions we have about the future of the Suns. Including Chris Paul, who is getting older and might start slowing down soon. Paul was bad over the last 5 games of Phoenix’s loss in the playoffs averaging 9.4 points, 5.8 assists, and 3.4 rebounds as the Suns blew a 2-0 series lead. He seemed to run out of gas and not have the answers for the big, long, athletic wings that Dallas threw at him. Jae Crowder is due a contract extension this summer as well. He has 1yr/$10.2 million left on his contract he signed as a free agent in 2020 and is eligible to sign a 4yrs/$58.3 million contract extension this summer but it is unclear if Phoenix would be willing to pay that price tag to keep Crowder around. This is questionable in large part due to Devin Booker becoming eligible for a supermax contract extension this summer. The deal would be a 4yrs/$211 million contract that would pay him $58.4 million in the final season and would not kick-in until the start of the 2024-25 season, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks. The last player due an extension is sharpshooter Cam Johnson. Johnson had a big year for Phoenix mostly coming off of the bench averaging 12.5 points while shooting 42.5% from 3 on 6 attempts per game. I think a good price for Johnson is in the $70 million range if you compare to other great shooters like what Joe Harris, Duncan Robinson, and David Bertans got when they were elite shooters that became free agents, but we have seen what those contracts have turned into.
There are plenty of ways for the Suns to upgrade their roster as well via trade. Option 1 is an Ayton sign and trade, which I expect will happen but there are other ways too. They have contracts like Torrey Craig at about $5 million, Cam Payne at about $6 million, Dario Saric at about $9 million, and Landry Shamet at about $10 million, all of which they can use to try and add some depth at point guard and on the wing. Some options are Josh Hart, Marcus Morris, Alec Burks, Justin Holiday, and others who they could try and make a play on to add some versatility to a roster that seemed deprived of it as the Mavericks went small and killed the Suns from 3 point range.
The Suns are good, really good but this team is about to become expensive, and we have never seen Robert Sarver willing to spend in the past and I am nervous he will not change his ways, especially with the NBA investigation we do not need to get into. Chris Paul is aging, Deandre Ayton is likely leaving, and this team is about to become real expensive to keep together. This is a big offseason coming up for President of Basketball Operations James Jones and company.
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