The In-Season Tournament group stages have ended and the knockout stages have arrived. Today, I am going to review the group stages and preview the quarterfinals in the knockout round.
Group Stage Review
There were a lot of things that happened in the group stages. Let’s start with the Indiana Pacers, who went 4-0 and won East Group A, including tight wins over the Cavaliers and 76ers and a 157-152 point win over the Atlanta Hawks. The way they closed out the Cavaliers and 76ers was really impressive and something that should carry over into the remainder of the season.
The way the Celtics clinched their group on Tuesday night was crazy. They needed to beat the Bulls by 23 or more points and have the Nets beat the Raptors by 8 less points than the Celtics beat the Bulls by. If the Celtics failed to beat the Bulls by 23 but still won, the Orlando Magic would have likely advanced to the knockout round. If Boston lost to the Bulls and the Nets beat the Raptors, Brooklyn would have been the team advancing. If the Celtics won and the Nets lost, the Magic would have advanced no matter the score of the Chicago-Boston game. The Celtics took care of the Bulls, winning the game by 27, meaning they needed the Nets to win by less than 19. Brooklyn won by 12 and the Celtics advanced to the knockout stage. Another thing that I find fascinating is how the Los Angeles Lakers have played in tournament play vs. regular season play. In the In-Season Tournament they are 4-0 with a point differential of +74, in non-In Season Tournament games they are 7-8 with a point differential of -81. Now they -81 is ballooned by a 34 point loss to the Rockets and a 44 point loss to the 76ers and 3 of their I.S.T. wins are against the 6-12 Utah Jazz, the 5-12 Portland Trail Blazers, and the 4-13 Memphis Grizzlies. There is evidence that both situations are fluky and the Lakers are exactly what their combined record and combined point differential say they are, an average basketball team that does not have a championship ceiling.
The last thing I want to touch on from the group stage is the special courts every team, besides the Dallas Mavericks, used. Although a lot of people did not like them, I was a fan. All but 4 teams are only using them twice and while some of them were an eye sore, most looked pretty good. Do I want them to be permanent, no, but I liked what the league did with the courts.
Now let’s get into the quarterfinals preview.
Celtics at Pacers
As an NBA enjoyer, I am excited for this game. The last time these 2 teams met was on November 1st (2 days before the I.S.T. began), a game the Celtics won by 51 points. Tyrese Haliburton did not play in that game for the Pacers but he was not changing the result of that game. There are 3 fundamental differences between that game and this game, one is Haliburton, two is the location (that game was in Boston while this game is in Indiana), and three is the Pacers offense has become the best in the NBA, with an offensive rating of 123.2 in the month of November, best in the NBA. Now the defensive end is a different story, the Pacers guard absolutely no one, having the 2nd worst defensive rating in the NBA at 119.3, the Hornets are last at 120.0 (a team that beat the Celtics). The Celtics are elite on both ends and their ratings say that, 9th in offense, 2nd in defense, and 1st in net. This is a huge test for the Pacers, can they get enough stops during the game to win it? I do not think they will because the Celtics have Jayson Tatum and while his decision making has been bad lately, he is still one of the five best players in the world. As a result, I am picking Boston. The game is Monday at 7:30PM/EST on TNT.
Pelicans at Kings
These two teams have already played twice this season, with the Pelicans winning both (129-93 the first game and 117-112 the second). The Pelicans are healthy, CJ McCollum just returned from a collapsed lung and Trey Murphy is expected to make his season debut Friday, but this game is going to come down to Zion Williamson. Both teams are average in terms of net rating, New Orleans 17th and Sacramento 21st, so this is not a game that is going to jump off the page. Sacramento is 11th in offense and 19th in defense while New Orleans is 18th in offense and 11th in defense. As you can see, each side of the court is going to be pretty even in terms of rating for each team. This is why I believe this game is going to come down to Zion Williamson. There is a leap in his numbers in Pelicans wins vs Pelicans losses. In wins this season, Williams has averaged 25.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, in losses he averages 22.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. In fact, on Wednesday night Williams had 33 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists while shooting 11/12 from the field and 11/12 from the free throw line and the Pelicans beat the then 12-5 Philadelphia 76ers, 124-114. As you can see when Zion performs the Pelicans win and I am going to pick that Zion is going to perform Monday night and the Pelicans win. The game is Monday at 10:00PM/EST on TNT.
Knicks at Bucks
This is the first rematch from the group stage. The Bucks won the game 110-105, Jalen Brunson had 45 points in the Knicks loss while Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard combined for 52 points. Khris Middleton is still seemingly on a minutes restriction so he will likely play a similar role in this game. The difference needs to be Julius Randle, who was bad the last time these 2 teams faced off with 16 points on 5/20 from the field and 1/9 from 3 point range. With Brunson’s massive performance last time out and Giannis and Dame being better connected than they were a month ago, if the Knicks need Randle to be better. Another difference in this game is RJ Barrett who did not play the last time these two teams faced off. The Bucks defense is also getting better, over their last 10 games they have a defensive rating of 114.4 which ranks 13th in the association. Ever since they have gone back to Brook Lopez playing at the rim, Milwaukee’s defense has been better, though the perimeter defense is still shaky. The Knicks are elite defensively, which makes sense for a Tom Thibodeau coached team, with a defensive rating of 108.7, good enough for 4th in the NBA. I would not be surprised if Brunson has another monster game so it’ll come down to can Randle and Barrett make shots at an efficient rate. I am going to predict they do and that Brunson has another monster game leading to a Knick win. The game is Tuesday at 7:30PM/EST on TNT.
Suns at Lakers
The second group stage rematch takes place in the Crypto.com Arena between the Phoenix Suns and the Los Angeles Lakers. This will be the 3rd time these 2 teams have played, with the Lakers winning each of the first 2. This will also be the first time Devin Booker plays against the Lakers this season, barring something unforeseen over the next couple of days. Kevin Durant has absolutely lit up the Lakers this season averaging 38.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.5 assists with shooting splits of .49/.43/.78 in the 2 games these teams have played this season. I would expect another monster Durant game with the addition of Booker. In order to keep up the other Lakers need to step around LeBron James, and that includes Anthony Davis. Davis has had an inconsistent year this season to say the least and he needs to have a big game if the Lakers want to advance. Los Angeles also needs good play out of D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves, 2 players who have also had inconsistent years to say the least. The Lakers defense vs the Suns offense is the matchup in this game that will decide it. Can the Lakers limit Durant and Booker enough and get enough scores to advance to the semi-finals in Las Vegas? I do not think they will, so I am picking Phoenix to win. The game is Tuesday at 10:00PM/EST on TNT.
The In-Season Tournament group stages are behind us and the quarterfinals are here. It should be a lot of fun to watch all the games and see how they play out.
Comments