Over the last 2 seasons, the Memphis Grizzlies have won 107 regular season games. Yet, they only have one playoff round win to show for it. As a result, this summer they shook up their team by sending Tyus Jones and Dillion Brooks out the door and bringing in Marcus Smart. Smart is supposed to replace what Jones and Brooks gave Memphis in one player. However, with Ja Morant being suspended for the first 25 games and Steven Adams being out for the season, the Grizzlies have bigger problems than replacing Jones and Brooks.
Let’s start with the positives, Desmond Bane is really good and worth his max extension. Bane was awesome Wednesday night with 31 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists on shooting splits of .50/.50/.80 and, at times, looked like Memphis’ only source of offense. He is really good and looks like he can be the 2nd scoring option on a really good team. Even with Bane’s performance, the Grizzlies only scored 104 points in their loss against the Pelicans. That should increase with better shooting from Luke Kennard and Jaren Jackson Jr., both were 0-5 from 3 points range. Yet, their half court offense is a mess even with Morant in the lineup, most of their points come off offensive rebounds, where they were above 30% each of the last 2 seasons. Steven Adams has played a huge part in that. In fact, after the All-Star break last season, Memphis’ offensive rebound percentage was only 25.6%, 25th in the NBA and Adams played in none of those games. If they can’t get offensive rebounds, I am not sure how the Grizzlies are going to score even with Morant, much less without him. They couldn’t score in the Lakers series last season, an offensive rating of 102.8 over the 6 games, and they lost their 2 best playmakers from that series. Smart will help with that, he is one of the most underrated passers in the NBA, but beyond that is relying on a 35-year-old Derrick Rose something any of us have confidence in? This offense is bad, and there are not a lot of ways for it to improve, so they are going to have to grind out wins defensively.
For as big of a loss he is on the offensive end, you could make the argument that Steven Adams’ absence looms larger for the Grizzlies defensively. He has been the guy who guards the other team’s center for Memphis, allowing Jaren Jackson Jr. to play center field and block shots. It is how Jackson won Defensive Player of the Year last season because when the Grizzlies as ‘Triple J’ to guard centers, he gets into foul trouble and it usually does not go well. They also just lost their best wing defender in Dillion Brooks, no matter what you think of Brooks as an offensive player, there is no denying that defensively he is a big loss for Memphis. They do have Smart to replace Brooks and he is probably an upgrade but that does not change the fact that they’ll miss Brooks’ defense. The Grizzlies are still going to have an elite defense, they have the last two Defensive Player of the Year’s on their roster, but Adams is a massive loss on that side of the court and they are going to feel his loss, especially since they won’t have Brandon Clarke as well as he gets back from a torn achilles.
Another spot I worry about Memphis is on the wing. If you look at the last few champions, all of those teams had good players on the wing. The Nuggets had Aaron Gordon and Micheal Porter Jr., the Warriors had Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson, the Bucks had Khris Middleton and P.J. Tucker, the Lakers had LeBron, the list goes on. In order to win a championship in the NBA you need to have at least good wing players, and most have great wings. The Grizzlies don't have that, which is why I do not think they have a championship ceiling with their current roster. Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia, and David Roddy are all young players who have a chance but none have shown that ability to be a wing who can guard or even slow down the likes of Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum, or Kevin Durant in a playoff series. Luke Kennard is a knockdown shooter but he can’t guard at all. The wing is what has held Memphis back in the playoffs and will be what continues to hold them back.
The Memphis Grizzlies have had a high regular season floor the past 2 seasons, winning 107 games combined in 2021-22 and 2022-23. However, they haven’t been able to match up with the elites in the Western Conference in the playoffs, which is not going to change without a big roster change. Without Ja Morant, Steven Adams, and Brandon Clarke, I expect the Grizzlies to fall behind the 8 ball early in the season and without their top 2 centers for most of the regular season, and all of it for Adams, it will be a challenge for them to catch up.
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