The NBA Finals are set: the Milwaukee Bucks vs the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix is in the Finals for the first time since 1993 and have never won a championship and the Bucks are in the finals for the first time since 1974 and have not won the championship since 1971. Both teams have had great runs and have had very different paths over the past couple of years. What are the keys to the series? Who wins? Is Giannis Antetokounmpo healthy enough to play and be the Greek Freak we all know he can be?
The Milwaukee Bucks have had lots of disappointment over the past 4 seasons. In 2018, it was a 7 game first round loss to a Boston Celtics team without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward. They were only a 7 seed that season, so they made a coaching change Jason Kidd was fired midseason and Joe Prunty was not brought back after serving as the interim coach. They would hire Mike Budenholzer would be the new coach, in his first 2 seasons as coach Budenholzer would lead the Bucks to the best record in the NBA in both seasons and Giannis would win back to back MVPs. In 2019, after sweeping the Pistons and avenging the loss to the Celtics in 5 games, they would take on the Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals. After winning the first 2 games at home, Milwaukee would go on to lose 4 straight games and be eliminated by the eventual champion Toronto Raptors. In 2020, they would be upset in 5 games by the Miami Heat, who would go on to lose in the NBA Finals. The Miami loss was seen as a disaster. So, Milwaukee made a huge swing sending Eric Bledsoe, George Hill, 3 first round picks, and 2 pick swaps to the New Orleans Pelicans for guard Jrue Holiday. The Bucks looked all in and grabbed the East’s 3rd seed. After avenging the loss and sweeping the Miami Heat, the Bucks would take on the Brooklyn Nets. Games 1-4 held par as both teams won their home games. Then Kevin Durant scored 49 points in game 5, a game Milwaukee should have won anyways. Then after defending their home court in game 6, the Bucks went back to Brooklyn for game 7. If Kevin Durant’s foot was a size smaller or even a half size smaller, we would be having a different conversation right now, as his shot to force overtime would have been a game winner, but it is not as the Nets would only score 2 points in OT and the Bucks would advance. Then they would play the Atlanta Hawks, after losing a tough game 1 at home, the Bucks stomped on the Hawks in game 2, then they would split in Atlanta, and a Giannis injury in game 4, it looked iffy for Milwaukee. Then Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis absolutely dominated game 5, while Khris Middleton’s 23 point third quarter, including 16 straight points, sent Milwaukee to the NBA Finals. If the Bucks are going to win the Championship, Giannis needs to be healthy, which I am not sure he will be.
The Suns sucked in 2017-18 with the NBA’s worst record and sucked again in 2018-19 finishing tied for the 2nd worst record, they had a worse record in 2018-19 then they did the year prior. After beginning last season decently the Suns were the last team invited to the bubble, they proceeded to win all 8 games they played, just missing the play-in tournament. Then in November they traded for Chris Paul and signed Jae Crowder to join Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton in the starting 5. With a really deep bench having players like Cam Johnson, Cam Payne, and Torrey Craig, the Suns won 51 games getting not only the 2nd seed in the west but having the 2nd best record in the NBA. They have one of the best backcourts in the NBA with Chris Paul and Devin Booker. They began the playoffs against reigning champion Los Angeles Lakers, after going down 2-1 to begin the series the Suns came back winning the next 3 games, including 2 in Los Angeles, in part due to an Anthony Davis injury. Then they swept the Jamal Murray-less Denver Nuggets, including a dominant victory in game 4. Then they would take on a Kawhi Leonard-less Clippers in the Western Conference Finals. After a win in game 1, the “Valley-Oop” sealed game 2 with 0.9 seconds left off of an alley-oop pass from Jae Crowder to Deandre Ayton. They then went to Los Angeles and split the two games, never trailing in the game 4 win. Then they lost game 5 after Paul George scored 30 points in the second half. Only to have Chris Paul match with 31 second half points in game 6, sending the Suns to the NBA Finals.
The big question for the series is how healthy is Giannis Antetokounmpo? I expect him to play in the series at some point but he is listed as doubtful for game 1 so it is unlikely he plays in the first game. If Giannis can play as the series progresses and is playing like Giannis I think the Bucks are the better basketball team. Having co-stars like Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday around the Greek Freak are really good and I think guys like P.J. Tucker, Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton, and Bobby Portis would be good enough. However, I am not sure how healthy Giannis is and it is hard to find a player to guard Deandre Ayton. Brook Lopez is good but no, Tucker and Portis are too small (actually I think Portis against Dario Saric is a good matchup for Milwaukee) and they don’t have much else on the block. I think that Holiday can take Booker and Middleton/Tucker is a good matchup vs CP3. They should try and continue to go inside Giannis, Lopez, and Portis, play inside out and kick to open 3 point shooters. I expect them to go completely cold in a game or two because that’s what they do, and they’ll have a game or two when they are just lights out because, again, that’s what the Bucks do, they are hot and cold. Their defense, however, has always been there, even after a gut punching game 5 loss to Brooklyn. Devin Booker is expected to play without the mask, which should be good news for the Suns because he struggled while playing with it. If Milwaukee can hit their 3 pointers, I think they win. If Giannis is healthy it greatly increases the Bucks chances. Milwaukee needs to contain the Suns pick and rolls and need Brook Lopez to step up in those pick and rolls a little more than he normally does because if he does not Paul and Booker are going to kill the Bucks in the mid-range. The series is going to rely on Giannis’ health because if Antetokounmpo cannot play, the Bucks have a very small chance. If he does play and he is healthy I would favor the Bucks in the series. With all of that being said, I am picking the Suns in 6 games (I think the Bucks would win a game 7, if it got to that point). With Giannis’ health being in the air and the Bucks being so inconsistent, to go along with the role players Phoenix has like Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, and Cam Johnson, I think the Suns find a way to lift the Larry O’Brian trophy when it is all set and done.
Suns-Bucks was not the NBA Finals I think many of us expected coming but it is going to be an awesome series. Hopefully Giannis can be healthy as he deserves the opportunity to play in his first ever finals. I think the Suns find a way to win the same way they have all season long. It should be an awesome series, and as always you can find all 7 games on ABC with the series schedule on NBA.com along with many other websites.
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