The NBA Finals have finally arrived, it’s the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors battling it out in a best of 7. The Warriors are back in the Finals for the 6th time in 8 years and have 123 games of Finals experience on the roster even after missing the playoffs the past 2 seasons. Meanwhile the Celtics are here for the first time since 2010 and have 0 games of Finals experience on the roster. There are a lot of differences between the two teams but there are also some similarities. Let’s dive into how they got here and how they match up.
The Golden State Warriors missed the playoffs last season by losing 2 games in the play-in tournament. However, the seeds were being planted at the end of the regular season, they finished the year 15-5 playing their style of basketball. James Wiseman and Kelly Oubre Jr., were no longer in the rotation and the Warriors went back to playing Warriors basketball with all of their cutting and moving around the perimeter on offense. As a result, this offseason they keyed in on players who would fit their system like Otto Porter Jr., Ander Iguodala, Gary Payton II, and Nemanja Bjelica. It paid off in a big way as Golden State started the season 18-2 including an opening night win against the preseason Western Conference favorite Lakers. Led by Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, the Warriors were playing Warriors basketball and were set to get Klay Thompson back but just as Thompson got back, the Dubs lost Draymond Green for an extended period of time as the Warriors went 17-14 in the time Green missed. Just as Green returned the Warriors lost Steph Curry for the entire end of the regular season as the Warriors finished 6-6 and concluded the regular season as the 3rd seed with 54 wins.
In round 1 they took on the Denver Nuggets led by MVP Nikola Jokic. However, Jokic was all Denver had due to Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. missing the series. As a result, Golden State took quick care of Denver in a gentleman's 4-1 sweep. In round 2 they got the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis had an excellent season winning 56 games and capturing the 2nd seed in the Western Conference. Led by Most Improved Player Ja Morant, though I thought he was already too good to be Most Improved. The Grizzlies were scrappy all season and proved to be a scrappy bunch for the Dubs to deal with. After the Warriors gutted out a game 1 win, the Grizzlies bounced back and took game 2. However, the damage was already done because as the series shifted to the Chase Center in San Francisco the Warriors took both games at home. Even after the Grizzlies pounded the Warriors at home by 39, the Dubs took care of business in game 6 and sent the Grizzlies home. It is important to point out that Morant missed games 4-6 with a bone bruise in his knee and Golden State took advantage of that while advancing to the Western Conference Finals. In those Conference Finals the Warriors took on the Dallas Mavericks led by Luka Doncic after Dallas took out the Phoenix Suns who owned the best record in the NBA in the second round. The Warriors sprinted out to a 3-0 series lead, as Dallas blew a game 2 lead that swung the series in a big way. The Mavericks bounced back and won game 4, surviving a furious Warriors 4th quarter comeback, but it was too little too late as the Warriors knocked out Dallas in 5 and the Warriors advanced to the Finals.
The Boston Celtics were quite bad in 2020-21, after making the Conference Finals in 2020, the Celtics stumbled to a 36-36 record getting pounded in the first round by the Brooklyn Nets. They retooled this offseason moving Brad Stevens to the Front Office and making him the President of Basketball Operations and hiring Ime Udoka as coach. They started the season bad, blowing big leads, not moving the ball enough, and looking disconnected as a whole. This all came to a head on January 6th Boston blew a 25 point lead to the Knicks that was capped off by a bank shot buzzer beater by R.J. Barrett. They were 18-21, 11th in the East, seemingly stuck in purgatory. However, something switched, 50 games in they were sitting at 25-25 but then the Celtics turned around and won 8 straight games and never looked back finishing the final 32 games 26-6. They had the best defense in the NBA over that stretch and an elite offense as they blew teams out. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown took huge leaps as overall players including playmakers, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are defensive stall worts, and Al Horford and Derrick White were big additions via trade.
In round 1 the Celtics took on the Brooklyn Nets led by Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They exposed the issues Brooklyn had which was that behind Irving and Durant the Nets roster was bad. After an epic game 1 that ended with a Jayson Tatum buzzer beater, the Celtics swept the rest of the series. In the 2nd round the Celtics took on the Milwaukee Bucks, the reigning NBA champions. The Bucks have Giannis and that was on full display in game 1 as the Bucks punched the Celtics in the mouth. The Celtics would bounce back and take 2 out of the next 3 including a 30 point game 4 effort from Al Horford. In game 5, the Celtics played poorly down the stretch, losing the game and putting themselves on the brink of elimination, turning the ball over and giving up offensive rebounds. In game 6 facing elimination on the road, Jayson Tatum had an all-time great performance, scoring 46 points and grabbing 9 rebounds, out dueling Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had 44 points and 20 rebounds, as the Celtics won and forced a game 7 back in Boston, where Grant Williams made 7 3’s and the Celtics eliminated the Bucks. In the Conference Finals, they took on the Miami Heat. Game 1 went to the Heat after the Heat pounded the Celtics by 25 points in the 3rd quarter. Boston bounced back and won game 2 by 25 points. As a result, when the series shifted to Boston, the Celtics had a chance to bury Miami, only to lay an egg in game 3 and lose. After winning games 4 and 5 the Celtics had to win one home game to advance to the Finals. Jimmy Butler had other plans scoring 47 points and forcing a game 7 back in Miami. With just over 3 minutes left the Celtics had a 13 point lead, which Miami erased with an 11-0 run to cut it to 2 with under 24 seconds left and they had the ball. However, Jimmy Butler would miss a pull up 3 and the Celtics would rebound, make the free throws and survive to the NBA Finals even after making it way too hard on themselves.
There are a couple keys to the series. It starts with the stars, specifically the Boston stars, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Tatum and Brown need to be aggressive in this series for Boston and have to take care of the basketball. They need to get looks to open shoots, decisions have to be made fast, they need to be decisive, and they cannot be sloppy. If Boston becomes sloppy it is a problem because it takes away their half court defense which is bad as was proven in the Miami series. Another key for Boston is the health of Robert Williams. The Celtics need the ‘Timelord’ to be healthy if they are going to win the series, he needs to play a factor on both sides of the ball as a shot blocker and a vertical threat above the rim. For the Warriors, they need to have guys like Andre Iguodala and Gary Payton healthy. Boston is bigger than the Warriors, more athletic, and better defensively. As a result, the Warriors need to find ways to get stops, Draymond Green is a massive part of this and so is Kevon Looney but they need guys like Iggy and GPII to be healthy to make sure the Celtics other guys like Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, and Grant Williams cannot get open looks from 3. Curry is going to be Curry, Klay is a factor because when he is hot he is still a flame thrower though he has been known to go cold at times, and Jordan Poole is going to score but the defense is a problem (it is very bad). Close games are going to be an interesting part of these Finals as well.
The Warriors are one of the great dynasties in NBA history, they have been to 6 NBA Finals in 8 years and have won 3 championships. They have closed big close games in the past and they have done it this season. The Celtics have struggled late in tight games, taking out the first round, Boston is 2-4 in clutch time games including game 7 of the Heat series that they won that should not have been a clutch time game. They have blown games constantly, games 3 and 5 in the Bucks series and games 3 and 6 in the Miami series. They can’t continue to lose late games the way they have, they need to close like they did in game 6 in Milwaukee, where Jayson Tatum would not let them be denied. They tried to give away game 7 in Miami, stuff like that cannot happen if you are going to beat the Warriors.
I am picking the Celtics in 7 games. This pick is a bit biased but that part is not important. I think that the Celtics have a legit chance, they are long, athletic, so good defensively, and they have those two star wings. The Warriors are a threat the Celtics have not seen but the Celtics are also something that the Warriors have not seen. Boston has not lost 2 games in a row the entire postseason and I think the mental toughness holds up and they find a way to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy.
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