The NBA free agent market is going to be driven by the point guard. With guys like Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, Dennis Schroder, and others hitting the open market, it should be a hectic couple of days as point guards either re-sign with their old team, or find a new team to sign with. There are plenty of options for all of these players so let us dive into some of them.
Let’s start with Chris Paul and Mike Conley. I expect both players to resign with their current teams. For Paul, that is the Phoenix Suns. Paul was traded to the Suns in November 2022 and boy was it a hit as Phoenix then proceeded to advance all the way to the NBA Finals, after missing the playoffs the previous 10 seasons. Paul had a big playoffs for the Suns as he averaged 19.2 points, 8.6 assists, and 5.3 rebounds on shooting splits of .50/.45/.88. The domino effect of Paul leaving would cripple a Suns team that needs to extend both Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges so they would not have the cap space to get a player at Paul’s caliber to replace him. Paul needs to be re-signed and I suspect Phoenix will get it done, though that number will hurt, do not be surprised if Paul reaches the $110 million range as a lot of teams call.
Mike Conley played for Utah over the past 2 seasons after being traded by the Memphis Grizzlies in June 2019 after 12 seasons with Memphis. I think Utah and Conley get a deal done and I think they get it done at a 4 year mark. That could be about 4yrs and $96+ million with a player option for the final season. That is a reasonable number at about $24 million per year, I think his market will not be as large as some of these other guys like Paul or Kyle Lowry because he is not as playoff tested as those other guys.
Kyle Lowry is the greatest Toronto Raptor of all time. However after 9 seasons in the north, including 6 All-Star appearances and a championship, that chapter will likely close in the coming days. Teams like the New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks, and the New York Knicks are creating cap space while the Miami Heat are creating a trade package, including Goran Dragic who’s $19 million team option was picked up by the Heat on Sunday. He is going to get PAID and will probably even be able to secure the 3rd year that seemed unlikely a few weeks ago. I think ultimately, Lowry ends up with the Heat, while Toronto takes Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa back in a sign-and-trade. For money, Lowry likely gets 3 years for $85 million. He could probably get more elsewhere but I think he takes a small pay cut to join the Heat.
With the addition of Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schroder is unlikely to return to the Lakers. While they had contract extension talks all season, Schroder and the Lakers were never able to agree to terms on a new deal, so free agency it is. The most obvious team is the Knicks, the cap space is there and so is the need for a point guard. Miami, should they miss out on Lowry, could also be involved, so could a couple of other teams, like the Mavericks and Bulls, should they miss out on their targets. However, the Knicks make too much sense, they need a guard, they have the cap space, and Schroder is the best option. I suspect it is a 3-4 year deal worth about $18 million per year, which is less than the Lakers extension offer.
Lonzo Ball is a restricted free agent, though a move is possible. If the New Orleans Pelicans are able to land Kyle Lowry, Ball would become an unrestricted free agent and be able to sign anywhere with the Bulls as the most likely team. However, I do not think Lowry becomes a Pelican, leading New Orleans to match any offer sheet Ball would sign. He might sign an outright 5 year deal with the Pelicans but I think a 4yr/$100 million might be the deal Ball secures.
Spencer Dinwiddie missed all but 3 games during the 2020-21 season while he was with the Nets. That did not stop Dinwiddie from opting out of the $11 million dollar player option he had to become a free agent. The Knicks could be interested, so could the Mavericks and Pelicans along with all the same teams we have been talking about. However, Dinwiddie could also sign a 2 year contract with an opt out after the first season to, worth the full mid-level exception, which is about $9.5 million dollars for next season and would have a $10 million player option so he could hit the market next year and get paid then. It is less than he would have made if he had opted in but he could get the opportunity to start if he were to sign with a team like the Wizards.
Derrick Rose and Patty Mills are also guys who are likely to be mid-level exception players. Mills, however, is likely to re-sign with the Spurs, so they could just give him any kind of money they want because of the amount of cap space they have, and also the bird-rights they control. Rose is likely to sign a contract worth the full mid-level exception. He was really good for the Knicks last season and was the only guard the team felt comfortable playing in the playoffs, so I expect a lot of teams to pursue him. Reggie Jackson also seems like he is going to re-sign with his former team, the Los Angeles Clippers, though he might become a full mid-level player if he were to depart from LA.
Cam Payne, Devonte’ Graham, and T.J. McConnell also have very interesting free agencies to watch, as the money they get could be all over the place. I suspect they will get different numbers, as Graham is a restricted free agent, so the Hornets will likely match any offer sheet he were to receive. The Pacers would like to re-sign McConnell but if he were to get too pricey, maybe the full mid-level, he could be wearing a new team’s jersey within the week. Payne is also an interesting guy, as I really do not know how to value him, he was very good for the Suns in the playoffs but was that a one time thing? Also, do you really want a small guard, who does not play defense, and is as streaky as Payne is on your team?
All of these questions, and more, will be answered in the coming days and weeks as all 30 NBA teams continue to assemble their roster for the 2021-22 season. There are a lot of questions going around as free agency starts, but one thing I can answer you now, the market, is a guard driven market. Free agency is always fun and I hope there are some serious fireworks in the coming days and weeks ahead.
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