Last season was a disappointment for the Sacramento Kings, after finishing as the 3rd seed in 2022-23, the Kings finished 9th and missed the playoffs in 2023-24. However, to call it a major step back would be incorrect as well, after finishing 48-34 in 2022-23, the Kings went 46-36 last season. The Kings did not get worse, the west just got better. Which means they were past by and knew they needed to get better this summer. As a result, they signed DeMar DeRozan to a 3yr/$74 million in a sign-and-trade, sending out Harrison Barnes, Chris Duarte and a 2031 pick swap. The Kings remade their roster, can it make them a playoff team next season?
I like the DeRozan move, he is going to help Sacramento. Does trading a pick swap that far down the road worry me? Yes it does because we have seen the Kings get burned by a pick swap before, they fell from 3 to 5 in 2017 due to the Carl Landry and Jason Thompson salary dump in 2015. However, I like that Sacramento is taking this chance. The Kings have been so bad for so long that throwing a little caution to the wind is a good thing. It’s not like they are sacrificing a full first round pick in this trade, just a swap. After an offensive regression, the Kings need to score more points this season to keep up with the rest of the NBA. Having DeRozan, De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis is a pretty good place to start. In the clutch, the Kings should be one of the best teams in the NBA, as DeRozan is a two-time finalist for the Clutch Player of the Year award and Fox won the award in 2023.
The Kings should have one of the best offenses in the NBA in 2024-25. Domas Sabonis is probably the 2nd best passing center in the NBA behind Nikola Jokic. He creates space for guys to operate with his elite vision and ability to make tough passes. He had a huge season last year averaging 19.4 points, a league leading 13.7 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game. He does everything on the offensive side of the court, creating a bunch of 2nd chance opportunities as well with his 3.6 offensive rebounds per game. He is a gamechanger to Sacramento’s offense. The Kings depth is also really strong offensively.
Let’s start with Malik Monk, who I believe was going to win 6th Man of the Year last season if he did not get hurt. Monk has had a career renaissance with the Kings landing a 4yr/$78 million contract this summer. He has shown that his best role is as the 6th man and his ability to dribble, pass and shoot have been evident over the past 2 seasons with the Kings. Kevin Huerter is coming off of a disappointing season, in which he only averaged 10.2 points per game (down from 15.2 in 2022-23) on a career low 36.1% from 3 (his previous career low was 36.3% in 2020-21 and he was 40% in 2022-23). A bounce back season from Huerter is imperative for the Kings if they are going to avoid the play-in this upcoming season.
The best player on the Kings is De’Aaron Fox. There are 3 reasons I believe this to be true. First, when the game is on the line, who has the ball in their hands? That answer is Fox. In their series loss to the Warriors in 2023, who had the bigger series between Fox and Sabonis? The answer, again, is De’Aaron Fox. Lastly, when Fox and Sabonis are on the court without the other, which lineups perform better? According to PBP Stats, the answer is Fox. In 743 minutes a season ago with Fox on the court and Sabonis not, the Kings net rating was 3.1, in 1,013 minutes with Sabonis on the court and Fox not, the Kings net rating was -4.0. That is a difference of 7.1 points per 100 possessions (net rating and points per 100 possessions are the same thing). Therefore, as we enter the 2024-25 season, remember Sacramento’s best player is De’Aaron Fox.
One of the biggest issues the Kings had in 2023 was their defense, ranking 24th in the NBA with a defensive rating of 116.0. They were better last season, ranking 14th with a defensive rating of 114.4. That needs to continue this season and it should. Harrison Barnes was not helping on the defensive end in the slightest and when the Kings decided to roll with Keon Ellis at the 2 next to Fox, they jumped to 8th in the NBA in defensive rating at 108.8. While having Sabonis at the 5 is huge for their offense, he does actively hurt the team at the other end. According to PBP Stats, he has made their defense 4 points worse per 100 possessions when he is on the court over the last 2 seasons. Sabonis needs to be better on the defensive end this season, though even if he is not, the Kings defense should be able to hover around the middle of the pack in the league.
The Kings are not going to compete with the top of the Western Conference. Teams like the Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Mavericks are just in a different class than they are. Yet, that does not mean the Kings are destined for the Play-In Tournament. They’ll need to have one of the best offenses in the NBA and be elite in clutch time to make up for a shaky defense but we saw in 2023 that it can be done and the team Sacramento has now is better than the one they had then. I do think the Kings can be better than teams like the Warriors, Lakers, Clippers, Suns and Pelicans because roster wise they are on the same level, if not a higher level, as those teams and they’ll be able to win a lot of close games. No, the Kings aren’t going to win the 2024-25 NBA championship but that does not mean they can’t have a good season.
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