The Western Conference is cluttered. The race to avoid the play-in and get into the play-in is very cluttered with only two teams out of the race. However, today I wanted to look at seeds 3 through 6 and how those matchups could decide who goes to the NBA Finals.
Before we start I wanted to talk about how good the Sacramento Kings are. Sitting at 36-25, 3 games up on 4th place Phoenix, it looks like Sacramento is going to be a 3 seed, Basketball Reference gives them a 65% chance to finish in that slot. The Kings are first in offense in the league with an offensive rating of 118.0. The duo of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox have an offensive rating of 120.7, second amongst duo’s in the NBA (not including the Denver Nuggets) who have played over 1,000 minutes. Better than the likes of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid and James Harden, Dejounte Murray and Trae Young, and Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant. With Kevin Hueter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Terrence Davis all shooting over 37% from 3 point range this season, Sacramento has done a great job of surrounding Sabonis and Fox with shooters. However, if Sacramento is going to make a deep playoff run, they are going to have to do it by outsourcing teams. Ranked 25th in defense, it has not been a huge problem for Sacramento yet but based on certain matchups that could come it could become an issue. Playoff basketball slows down and it gets harder to score. In order to win a championship you have to find ways to win when shots are not dropping and the Kings do not look like they are prepared to do that. Which is why I believe that if the Kings hold in third the way they are right now, the race for 6th in the west will become something teams try to accomplish.
The Phoenix Suns currently sit in fourth place right now, 3 back of the Kings and 1.5 games up on the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Clippers, and they just added Kevin Durant to the mix as he played his first game for the team on Wednesday night. Just behind the Suns are the Warriors are fifth, the Mavericks are in sixth, and the Clippers are in seventh. Let’s assume those four teams are battling it out to be the 4th through 7th seeds. No one wants to be 7th, as that would entail having to play in the Play-In Tournament and that is a disaster for any of these four teams. While Sacramento is having a really good season, to me, they are the least scary of the bunch, though the Clippers and Mavericks are not playing really good basketball right now and wouldn’t put much fear in me. With Golden State, Phoenix, Dallas, and the Clippers all competing for the four, five, six and seven seeds and the Kings being the third seed, no offense to the Kings or their fans, but who would you want to play? The reigning champs, the team who just acquired Kevin Durant, the team with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on it, the team with Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic on it, or the Sacramento Kings? Let’s say you did win that 4-5 matchup, you’d only have the Denver Nuggets, the team with 9 of 10 of the top offensive duo’s in the league based on offensive rating in the NBA, waiting for you in round 2. If you finish 6th, and do beat the Kings, the Memphis Grizzlies are, probably, waiting for you in round 2, who are 16th in offense, and 21st in half court offense according to Cleaning the Glass. They have proven that scoring in the half court is a challenge for them and all 3 of those defense’s have the ability to lock them up. The key to beating the Grizzlies is controlling the defensive boards because they are 3rd in the NBA in offensive rebounding percentage.
I’m starting to buy back into the Warriors. Sitting at 33-30, they have a huge stretch of games coming up after the Pelicans. A 3 game road trip at the Lakers, Thunder and Grizzlies before coming home to host the Bucks and Suns. With Steph returning on Sunday according to Chris Hayne, I do not see why 5-1 over their next six games isn’t possible and, though they have to overcome the road demons to do it, a stretch like that can put them right back into the mix of things in the Western Conference. The Suns need Kevin Durant, watching a few of the games he missed between the trade and his return, that team needs him to be on the court if they are going to win, which makes sense because he is Kevin Durant, you know who he is. Chris Paul’s age is definitely showing a lot this season but he doesn’t need to carry a scoring load and can be the floor general he is most comfortable at this point in his career. Devin Booker looked good in his first game sharing the court with Durant as well. It’s the other guys that worry me. Trusting Torrey Craig, Josh Okogie, Cam Payne, and others to possibly play big minutes in a playoff series is worrisome to me so that is something to keep an eye on but the Suns are really good. I picked the Clippers to win the west in the preseason, I am not sure what would need to be offered for me to stick by that pick now though. They had no answer for Jordan Poole in the second half on Thursday night, as he lit them up for 25 points in the half, 22 of which came in the third quarter. They’ve desperately needed a point guard all season and after missing out on one at the trade deadline, they signed Russell Westbrook to fill that void after he was bought out by the Jazz. Westbrook, by the way, should be coming off the bench behind Terrence Mann, not starting like he is now. They are a complete mess who have no identity six weeks out from the playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks, too, do not look all that great, despite their win on Thursday against the Sixers. The defense is really bad as they do not have the necessary pieces surrounding Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Even with the inconsistent play and defensive issues, with how talented Irving and Doncic are, they are a threat to beat anyone anywhere, any night.
The NBA Playoffs are on the way and there is still a lot of seeding to be figured out. None of it is as interesting to me as how teams try to manipulate the standing in the middle of the Western Conference to get the matchups they want.
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