As we enter the stretch run of the season, I figured I could bring back a tier of the league. Let’s dive right into it.
Tier 1: Title favorites
Cavaliers, Thunder, Celtics
If I had to bet on one of these three teams or the field to win the championship, I would be on one of these three teams, though this may not be saying much considering they’ve been the best three teams all season. Cleveland is the best team in the NBA right now. That win in Boston last Friday night was awesome. To go down 23 points 5 minutes in and then down 17 in the 2nd half and win in that environment against the champs, was very impressive. Interested in their closing lineup because it doesn’t seem like Jarrett Allen will be a part of it. He didn’t play in the 4th quarter against the Celtics and was on the bench in Cleveland’s win on Sunday against Portland. The Thunder’s net rating is one of the greatest teams ever, they are +13.5 points per 100 possessions, with the best defense in the league. With Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein on the back end and guys like Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the perimeter, they are nearly impossible to score on. The offense comes and goes but it has also been great this season. The champs had a rough point in January but since that point the Celtics had an 8-3 February and won their first 2 games in March. Jayson Tatum has taken a leap, his shot is back and his passing has never been better. You have to think the Celtics will be ready when the playoffs come around.
Tier 2: If you told me they were going to win the championship I wouldn’t be shocked
Lakers
I just can’t put the Lakers in the same tier as those other three teams. To me, Cleveland, Boston and Oklahoma City have been on a different level than everyone else all season and the Lakers haven’t. That doesn’t mean the Lakers aren’t elite. Luka and LeBron are great and figuring out how to play together was never going to be as hard as some thought it would be and the defense is better than any of us could have imagined. Austin Reaves, who is hurt right now but will be back, has proved to be the perfect third ball handler and hasn’t struggled to find his spots. They play small a lot but Jaxson Hayes has also played well. They are just really good and I don’t think any of us thought they would be this good this quickly.
Tier 3: Playoff lurkers
Nuggets, Warriors, Knicks
If you told me one of these three teams made it to the Finals, I’d believe you. In my tiers, last season I had the Mavericks in ‘trying to avoid the play-in’ and they went to the Finals. However, I wouldn’t bet on it. Denver has Nikola Jokic so I just can’t bet against them. Their roster isn’t very good, Zeke Nnaji, Julian Strawther and DeAndre Jordan are in the rotation right now. I also can’t buy into the Russell Westbrook thing until I see it in the playoffs either. For as great as he has been, he was good for the Clippers last year and then became one of the most unplayable players in the playoffs a season ago. Denver will need Jamal Murray and Micheal Porter Jr. to play like stars if they are going to win the west. The Golden State Warriors have been a completely different team since the Jimmy Butler trade. They have the 2nd best net rating in the NBA behind the Cavaliers since February 8th and are 9-2 over that stretch. They have found something since the trade and are set up to make a run in the playoffs. The Knicks are interesting because being the clear 3rd best team in the east is a 2-sided coin. They are better than Milwaukee, Indiana and Detroit, yet just aren’t on the same level as Boston or Cleveland and would struggle against those teams in a playoff series. Jalen Brunson is likely going to win Clutch Player of the Year and is spectacular but the rest of the roster leaves some to be desired. Karl-Anthony Towns’ defense is a problem, Josh Hart in the half court offense has been an issue and Mikal Bridges disappears for long stretches of games. They are a very good team but have a clear ceiling.
Tier 4: Imagine if Jimmy Butler played for one of these teams
Grizzlies, Rockets
Houston has an exceptional defense while Memphis has a more balanced team. However, if one of these teams had Jimmy Butler on them, I think they’d have a shot to make a real playoff run in the Western Conference. That said, these are still very good basketball teams. Jaren Jackson Jr. has broken out for the Grizzlies, he is playing at a level we have not seen from him on both sides of the court, though he is now considered week to week with an ankle sprain. As a result, more falls on to the plate of Ja Morant. Morant has not had his best season, he is 30% from three on the season and just 59% at the rim, which sounds good but his down from the 66% he was in 2021-22 and 62% he was in 2022-23. Memphis is going to need Morant to be more efficient if they are going to make a run. The Rockets are an average offense and when you get to the playoffs and you have an average offense that usually does not lead to good results. It will be fun to watch these two teams in the playoffs to see how close they are from being true contenders.
Tier 5: Central Division threats
Bucks, Pacers, Pistons
One of these teams is going to win a playoff series, maybe even two of them. Let’s start with the Pistons who are the feel good story of the NBA. At 35-28 Detroit is hanging around the Bucks and Pacers who are trying to create space for 4th and 5th. They have been playing awesome basketball since the turn of the new year. 21-10 and 6th in net rating at +6.5 since January 1st with the 2nd best defense in the NBA. Cade Cunningham has a legit shot to make an All-NBA team and his leap has been a huge part of the Piston turnaround. The Pacers have been fun since their run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season. Their offense is not as good as it was a season ago but they have been middle of the pack defensively after being 24th last year. Pascal Siakam has been better but Indiana needs more out of Tyrese Haliburton. Down to averaging 18 points and 8 assists per game after being at 20 points and 10 assists the past 2 seasons. The Bucks are just the Bucks, they still have Giannis and Dame but the rest of the roster is pretty mid. They still have a chance to make a run because Antetokounmpo is that good but I don’t think this is a championship level team.
Tier 6: The Western Conference Play-In will be fun
Timberwolves, Clippers, Kings
The Timberwolves have had a rough season. They have been awful in clutch time, with the 6th worst net rating in clutch time in the NBA. It is the reason they are in the play-in to begin with because they are 8th in the NBA in net rating. Anthony Edwards has taken a leap, his three point volume has been awesome, especially on pull ups where he is shooting 40% on pull up three pointers this season. The Julius Randle fit has been funky and has not really worked. However, I think that Minnesota is a team that will cause whoever they play in the first round a lot of problems because they are a good team. The wheels are starting to fall off for the Clippers. What started as a fun team that was without their best player hasn’t progressed the way they had hoped it would. James Harden had carried a lot on his plate all season and Kawhi Leonard isn’t what he once was. Norman Powell has also been hurt recently as well in what has been a breakout season for him. Lastly, Sacramento has started to turn a corner. They are getting Zach LaVine integrated well and Malik Monk being able to be their point guard has alleviated the sting of losing De’Aaron Fox well. DeMar DeRozan is playing at a high level right now and Domas Sabonis should return soon from his hamstring strain.
Tier 7: The Eastern Conference Play-In will not
Magic, Heat, Hawks
The Magic cannot score. Their defense is awesome but if you cannot generate baskets you cannot win basketball games. Franz Wagner’s three ball is in the gutter since his return from injury at 29%. Their guards don’t generate any offense, the Kentavious Caldwell-Pope signing has been a disaster and Jalen Suggs is out indefinitely. Orlando has an awesome defense but when you have a bottom 5 offense in the NBA, you can’t win a playoff series. The Heat can’t stop blowing leads, they are 28th in the NBA in clutch net rating this season. Tyler Herro has been great and Kel’el Ware has had an awesome rookie season but other than that the Heat have a lot of issues. Bam Adebayo hasn’t been his usual self this season either. The Hawks are just moving along and very well might make the playoffs. In a one or two game setting, there is absolutely a world where Trae Young drags Atlanta through the play-in and gets them to the playoffs. They had an odd deadline but the pieces from that have fit pretty well. I think the Hawks have a solid chance to make the playoffs.
Tier 8: Someone has to be 10th; West edition
Mavericks, Suns, Blazers
It is brutal to be a Mavericks fan right now. The Luka trade is inexplicable and just a devastating blow, Anthony Davis got hurt in his first game as a Maverick and Kyrie Irving just tore his ACL. It is just a nightmare season for Dallas and it all could have been avoided if they didn’t trade Doncic. The Suns are also having a nightmare season. At 29-33, Phoenix is 11th in the west and are staring down a Kevin Durant trade this summer. They are in one of the worst situations in the league owning none of their picks and having the Bradley Beal contract on their books. The Trail Blazers are playing really well right now. Over their last 7 games, they are 5-2, 4th in defense and 3rd in net rating. Anfernee Simons is averaging 25 points per game over those 7 games on 47% from the field, 38% from three and he hasn’t missed a free throw. It is their defense that has been the story, 4th in the league giving up 109.2 points per 100 possessions. They have found something and if the Mavericks and Suns keep struggling they could make a move for 10th in the conference.
Tier 9: Someone has to be 10th; East edition
Bulls, Nets, Sixers
These three teams are bad. Since February 1st, the Sixers are 29th in net rating, the Bulls are 26th and the Nets are 21st. The race for 10th in the east is one of the things happening in the NBA and none of the organizations would like to make it. The Bulls have been trying to get out of this spot really hard, they are 3-10 since February 1st. The 76ers have been doing even worse since February 1st at 2-12. The Sixers are a mess, Joel Embiid is out for the season with a recurring knee injury that he has been dealing with since last season. Paul George has been bad this season averaging 16.2 points per game on shooting splits .43/.36/.81, not what Philadelphia imagined when they gave him $212 million. Most of their moves this offseason did not work out but the Quentin Grimes for Caleb Martin trade at the deadline has worked out very well. The Nets, meanwhile, have been playing pretty well since February 1st, with a record of 6-7. D’Angelo Russell and Cam Thomas are back so Brooklyn could sneak into that 10th seed which would not be the best case scenario for them considering the trade they made to reacquire their own draft pick.
Tier 10: Get well soon Wemby
Spurs
The Spurs were one of the most fun teams to watch before Victor Wembanyama went down with blood clots. Obviously, the first concern is Wemby’s healthy, blood clots are scary and it is good the Spurs medical team was able to find them. Stephon Castle is awesome, he has struggled from three point range at 29% but his passing and defense have been really fun and Spurs fans should be really excited about him. Chris Paul has been a great free agent pick up and while De’Aaron Fox has had his struggles, that was a good swing for the Spurs. The Spurs should be good for a long time.
Tier 11: Capture the Flagg
Raptors, Pelicans, Jazz, Wizards, Hornets
There are rumors Cooper Flagg wants to go back to Duke for his final season. That will not be happening, the NBA money is too big and creating another year before your second contract would be bad business. The Raptors are probably the most fun team, they have a great fanbase with good players on the roster. Ingram, Flagg and Barnes would be a funky fit but they’d figure it out. I don’t want him on the Pelicans, we will not bury Flagg the way we did with Anthony Davis or Zion Williamson. I also don’t want him on the Hornets, that is purgatory and we don’t need him there. The Jazz would be interesting and the Wizards have been fun since the trade deadline but those are not the best situations either. Maybe Flagg should go back to Duke.
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