As the All-Star break wraps up and we head into the stretch run of the season I figured I would break down the league into tiers based on their championship odds and how they have played this season. The teams are listed in the tiers based on their current record, not a ranking within the tier.
Tier 1 - Title favorites
Celtics, Clippers, Nuggets
To me, these are the best 3 teams in the league right now. I talked about Boston extensively last week so check that out for more on the Celtics. The Nuggets have not played their best this season, they are currently 9th (!) in net rating, but when the playoffs come, I expect Denver to be there. Jokic is just too good. Finally, the Clippers have proven everyone who hated the James Harden trade dead wrong because to this point it has been a perfect fit. He takes a lot of the load off of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, allowing for them to put more effort in on defense. Speaking of Leonard, he has been healthy and looks like peak Kawhi Leonard that we saw in the 2019 playoffs. His mid-range shot feels like it goes in everytime and his defense has been incredible. Most importantly, he has been healthy. Their lineup versatility is something that also sticks out to me as well. They play most of their minutes with a real center but Ty Lue has sprinkled in Russell Westbrook at center and it has worked. I expect one of these teams to be holding up the Larry O’Brien trophy in June.
Tier 2 - Not counting them out
Bucks, Suns
Look, it is not going well for either of these teams, neither is playing championship level basketball right now and all of the evidence says neither team's defense is good enough to win the championship. Both alsohave backcourts who struggle to guard at the point of attack, though both tried to address that at the deadline and we will see if Royce O’Neale or Patrick Beverly can change the defensive outlooks for their new team. Yet, both teams have stars and when the going gets tough in the playoffs they have a guy who you can give it to and have them get a bucket. One team has Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Khris Middleton on it and the other has Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal. How can you count these teams out with that kind of star power? If you were to ask me which is more likely, one of these teams winning the championship or both are eliminated before the conference finals? That answer is eliminated before the conference finals. However, I just cannot say they can’t win a championship.
Tier 3 - Really good but unproven in the playoffs
Timberwolves, Thunder, Cavaliers, Knicks
If you had to ask me if one of these teams ends up in the conference finals, I would say yes. I expect one of the Wolves, Thunder, Cavs, or Knicks to be playing in the conference finals. I would even bet on one of these teams to be in the conference finals before I would be on Milwaukee or Phoenix getting to that point. However, I think the Bucks and Suns have a better chance at the title than any of these teams do. All four of these teams are really good and really fun. They are all in the top 10 in terms of defensive rating, they play hard, and they keep winning. Yet, they all have issues that alarm me in a playoff setting. The Wolves seemed to crumble in late game offense often, the Thunder are super young and just do not have the playoff experiences yet, the Knicks best player just 6 foot 2 and beyond him I worry about how they create offense, and we all saw Cleveland last season, that collapse is not something we should forget. I expect one of these teams to win 2 rounds and be in the final four of the NBA, but can they win 4 rounds and a championship? I don’t think so.
Tier 4 - Lurking (for vastly different reasons)
Sixers, Heat
For Philly it’s simple, if the big fella is playing and at 100% they have a chance, if he is not (which seems more likely at this point) they have no chance. Even if Joel Embiid is at 100% we have seen this movie before, I write the same blog every year. For the Heat, we have seen this movie as well, they always find a way so I’ll never count them out. They are not good, 22nd in offense, 8th in defense, and 18th in net rating and yet I’ll never count out Erik Spoelstra, Bam Adebayo, and Jimmy Butler again.
Tier 5 - Hoping to avoid the Play-In Tournament, Western Conference
Pelicans, Mavericks, Kings
If you told me one of these teams were to pull off a round one upset, I would believe it. All 3 of these teams are top 15 in offense and I just have faith in these teams to execute late in a game. Dallas has found something with Luka and a rim running and rim protecting big and they also have Kyrie Irving on their team. Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox are really good, they can flat out score. The question is can they get stops late in playoff games? I am not so sure about that one. Lastly, the Pelicans are a mystery. One night they look like an elite team and others they look like a team that shouldn’t even be in the playoffs. Can we trust the health of Zion Williamson or CJ McCollum? I think the Mavericks have the best chance to win a series out of any of these teams but none of them would stun me.
Tier 6 - Hoping to avoid the Play-In Tournament, Eastern Conference
Pacers, Magic
I was going to have these tiers mixed but there is a key difference between the tiers. While I believe that the West teams can win a round, I do not think either of these East teams have a good chance of advancing past the first round. The Pacers just don’t defend at all, 26th in defensive rating only better than the Wizards, Pistons, Hawks, and Hornets. I just don’t think they’ll get enough stops in a 7 game series. The Magic just do not score enough, 24th in offensive rating and, according to Cleaning the Glass, 24th in half court scoring. That is not going to hold up in the playoffs when everything slows down and you need a bucket late in a game. I would be shocked if either of these teams won a playoff series.
Tier 7 - Legendary players who you can’t count out
Lakers, Warriors
You can never count out LeBron James and Stephen Curry, no matter how old they are and how bad their teams are. Saying either of these teams can’t make the playoffs, get an favorable bracket, and steal a playoff series, maybe even 2, is something that I believe is wrong. Draymond Green and Anthony Davis are 2 of the 5 best defensive players in the league and while the supporting cast on both sides has flaws, both have been to at least the Western Conference Finals over the last 2 seasons. A Warriors-Lakers 9/10 play-in game would be electric, and there is a world where the winner of that game is playing into May.
Tier 8 - Whatever the teams at the bottom of the East Play-in are doing
Bulls, Hawks
While Warriors-Lakers would be awesome, Hawks-Bulls would be… not awesome and neither of these teams will be playing basketball in May. Don’t get me wrong, I would watch and write a preview of the game but I would not have that game circled on my calendar. I talked at length about what both these teams did at the trade deadline in my trade deadline recap so I won’t harp on that too much but neither of these teams are teams anyone is lining up to see play right now and they both need to make drastic changes.
Tier 9 - How serious were the Mikal Bridges trade talks?
Rockets, Nets
The Nets could have been in the last tier but I wanted to talk about the potential Mikal Bridges for the Nets draft picks (and maybe Jalen Green) trade. Let’s start with the question of how serious was Houston about it? It seems like they did want to do this so my question is, why did Brooklyn pass? Do you really want to pair Mikal Bridges up with a star? I get it, a long painful rebuild stinks and is something no one wants to do but that is your best option at this point. Right now the Nets are 21-33, 2 ½ games back of 10th place in the Eastern Conference and just fired their coach. If the get out of jail free card really was presented, why didn’t they take it? Mikal Bridges is a very good player but building around him is something that just is not a winning formula. Also was Jalen Green involved? That would have been a nice flier to take on a talented young player. The Nets are stuck in no man’s land without their own draft picks due to the first James Harden trade and they might have had a get out of jail free card presented to them… and they passed?
Tier 10 - Punting
Jazz, Grizzlies, Raptors
These teams are not spending the whole season tanking, however they have punted on this year and are on to 2024-25 (even if the Raptors traded a 1st round pick for Kelly Olynyk and Ochai Agbaji). For the Jazz and Raptors, punting on the season came in the form of trading some of their expiring players at the trade deadline and for the Grizzlies it has come in the form of pretty much all of their players getting injured and being forced to punt on the season. For all 3 of these teams it is all about next season and the coming years. I am very excited for the Grizzlies next season with new improved wing depth, a top 10 pick, and their best players starting to hit their primes.
Tier 11 - Tanking
Trail Blazers, Hornets, Spurs, Wizards
We knew these teams were going to be bad at the start of the season, 3 of these teams picked in the top 3 of last season’s draft and the other traded its best 2 players this summer. While there were some things about all of these teams we were at least interested to see what happens, they have turned out to be exactly what we thought they would be, bad basketball teams. That does not mean they won’t be interesting to watch (the Wizards will not be interesting). The development of Victor Wembanyama, Brandon Miller, and Scoot Henderson will be very fun to watch and Wemby has already shown those flashes. The rim protection looks like he has a few future Defensive Player of the Year awards coming his way and the offense is coming along. I am excited to see how the Spurs build around him for next season and beyond.
Tier 12 - Not tanking but still the worst team in the league
Pistons
The poor fans of the Detroit Pistons… and Detroit sports fans in general. The Lions were up by 3 scores in the NFC Championship game and blew it, the Tigers and Red Wings have been mediocre to bad for years, and now the Pistons are the worst team in the NBA… and they were not trying to be. Though they did push their cap space to this upcoming summer (get ready for the pursuit of Tobias Harris Pistons fans), they still were looking to be a better basketball team considering they paid a coach $72 million. Yet, they went on a 28 game losing streak and only have won 15% of their games at the All-Star break (they have 8 wins this season). It is not a great time to be a fan of the Detroit Pistons… at least Ausar Thompson and Jalen Duran look good.
We are in the home stretch of the NBA season. With about 2 months left in the season, the picture of who has a real chance to win the championship is taking shape.
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