The Philadelphia 76ers had a disappointing end to last season when they were eliminated in the first round by the New York Knicks. In a season that was defined by Joel Embiid injuries, playing in just 39 regular season games last year, the Sixers finished 7th in the Eastern Conference and were a first round exit. As a result, they were busy this offseason stealing Paul George away from his hometown Clippers on a 4yr/$212 million contract. They also added Caleb Martin, Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon and Reggie Jackson while drafting Jared McCain and Adem Bona. They also brought back Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Kenyon Martin Jr. Daryl Morey has reloaded the roster and they look to be ready to compete in an improving Eastern Conference.
The biggest key to the Sixers season is going to be if they can score when Joel Embiid is on the bench. According to PBP Stats, last season when Embiid was on the court, Philly’s offensive rating was 121.2, which would have been 2nd in the NBA, only behind the NBA Champion Boston Celtics. When Embiid was off the court, the Sixers offensive rating was 115.3, which would have 16th in the NBA. The Sixers net rating in 1,309 minutes with Embiid on the court last season was 9.9, which would have been 2nd in the NBA behind the Celtics again. In 2,647 minutes with Embiid off the court (whether resting or out due to injury) the Sixers net rating was -0.5, which would have been 20th in the NBA. In the playoffs these splits were even more drastic in the smaller sample size. In 248 playoff minutes with Embiid on the court, the Sixers net rating was 8.4. In 45 minutes with Embiid on the bench, their net rating was -50.7. It is almost impossible to be that bad and it is the reason they lost to the Knicks. If the Sixers are going to become a real title threat, they need to find a way to be a better team when the big fella is on the bench.
The additions the Sixers made should help them become more competent when Embiid sits. Although I still expect there to be a big gap, the other 2 stars on the team are the keys to shirking that gap. Coming off of a season in which he was the most healthy he had been since the 2018-19 campaign when he was with the Thunder, Paul George had a great season with the Clippers. Averaging 22.6 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists with shooting splits of .47/.41/.90, George proved he is still one of the elite players in the NBA. Tyrese Maxey is also back with a new massive contract extension of 5yrs/$204 million. Last season was the best of Maxey’s career and I expect him to only get better. Averaging 25.9 points and 6.2 assists a game last season, Maxey made his first All-Star team and only got better in the playoffs. Averaging 29.8 points and 6.8 assists with his efficiency improving as well, his field goal percentage jumped from 45% to 48% and his true shooting jumped from 57% to 59.5%. Maxey lit up the Knicks in the first round and should become even better in 2024-25.
I have some worries about the depth of the Sixers. The last 2 starters will likely be Kelly Oubre Jr. and Caleb Martin. Both are good players who are coming off of good seasons. Oubre averaged 15.4 points a game while showing solid defense and Martin a career high 10.0 points per game and had always been a good defensive player. However, neither shot the 3 ball all that well, Martin was at 35%, which is solid and will be of help to the Sixers but is not anything special and Oubre was at 31% on 4.8 attempts per game. I also have my worries about Martin at the 4. At just 6 foot 5, how is Caleb Martin expected to be the primary defensive option on players like Pascal Siakam, Julius Randle and, oh yeah, Jayson Tatum? The rest of the roster leaves some left to be desired. K.J. Martin signed a 2yr/$16 million deal and seems to be nothing more than a trade chip for the deadline as he was pretty insignificant for the Sixers last season. Eric Gordon is still going to hit open 3’s but he was a non-factor inside the arc in the playoffs last year, 18%, and he can’t guard. Reggie Jackson is in the same boat, provides good spacing but he can’t guard a traffic cone and is bad inside the arc. Kyle Lowry was solid after coming over via a buyout and should be able to continue to be an impactful part of the team but how impactful can the 38-year-old really be? I am excited about Jared McCain, just worried about whether the rookie can have an impact on this team.
The Eastern Conference runs through Boston, as it has for the last few years. Is this Philly team as good as the Celtics? I would say no. We have seen Joel Embiid against the Celtics 3 times now in the playoffs and the Celtics have won all 3 times, the last one being the most harmful to Embiid’s resume. I would not pick them to beat Boston but if a few things break correctly I think there is a chance they could pull the upset. Other than that, there is not a team in the East that is definitely better than the Sixers. The Bucks have a bunch of questions about age and health. Do we believe that Tauren Prince, Gary Trent Jr. and Delon Wright are game changing additions? The Pacers were a fun story last season but we will see what comes next for them, I am skeptical. The Heat were a mess last season. Why would anyone believe in that team to be something better than a play-in team? The Knicks feel like the best team to challenge Boston besides Philly and I have my doubts. Can a team with their best player being 6 foot 2 (is Jalen Brunson really that tall) win a championship? I don’t trust their center play as Mitchell Robinson is the only big on the roster I trust in a playoff series and he is often injured. The Eastern Conference has a bunch of good teams but nothing that says Philly should not be in the Eastern Conference Finals this season.
The Sixers have had a really solid offseason. I have my doubts about the team but they are a better basketball team this upcoming season than they were last season. The question becomes, can they compete with the Boston Celtics? That is an answer we should learn this season.
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