The Boston Celtics have done laps around the Eastern Conference this season as they are 9.5 games up on 2nd place Milwaukee for the 1st seed. They have been the best team in the conference going away thus far. Let’s see how some of the other Eastern Conference contenders stack up against Boston.
Bucks
The Bucks look like the biggest threat to the Celtics for a bunch of reasons. The first one is that they have Giannis Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo has had a huge season, averaging 30.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game this season. Giannis is the main reason that any of us should be taking Milwaukee seriously at all. Damian Lillard has been up and down in his first season as a Buck, their defense is lackluster at best (even if they have been better since hiring Doc Rivers), Khris Middleton cannot stay on the court, and Brook Lopez is getting old. I am not saying these players are bad, in fact Lillard is a stone cold killer and needs to be taken seriously, I just think there are more reasons to bet against the Bucks than bet on them. Yet, I wouldn’t ever want to bet against The Greek Freak, that is how good Antetokounmpo is and has been playing this season. The Bucks are 14.5 points per 100 possessions better with Giannis on the court and are expected to win 33 more games when Giannis is on the court vs. off the court. With Giannis on the court, they are a title favorite, with him off the court, they are a lottery team. The Bucks will go as Giannis Antetokounmpo takes them.
Cavaliers
I am not sold on Cleveland. I know the injuries have been stacking up and they keep finding ways to win, including a 22 point 4th quarter comeback against the big-bad Boston Celtics, but we all saw the Knicks series last season and we all saw Jarrett Allen admit the lights were too bright. Maybe they are more prepared for the playoffs this year with additions like Max Strus and Georges Niang but I just am not a believer in the Cleveland Cavaliers in the playoffs. Their guards are easily exposable and their wings are shaky defensively so I have my worries about their ability to defend in a playoff series. I do not believe that Cleveland is a real threat in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
Knicks
Since the Knicks traded for OG Anunoby on December 30th, they have been a different team with him on and off of the court. The difference between OG Anunoby on the court vs. off the court is +31.3 per 100 possessions. The Knicks are 31.3 points better per 100 possessions, which is the same thing as net rating, with Anunoby on the court than they are when he is off the court. That is how good of a fit OG Anunoby has been with the Knicks. Julius Randle needs to be healthy for the Knicks to have a real chance to beat the likes of Boston and Milwaukee but if he is, I think the Knicks become a real threat in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. That is how good Jalen Brunson has become, that is how much I like the depth the Knicks have, and that is how good Anunoby has fit in with the Knicks. Can the Knicks win a championship? Probably not. Can they give elite teams fits in the playoffs? Yes, they absolutely can.
Heat
The Miami Heat are always lurking, even if there is evidence that suggests we shouldn’t see them as a real threat. Miami has the 2nd worst net rating in the 4th quarter this season at -5.9, last year they were 4th in the league at +4.8 and in the 2023 playoffs they were +15.8 in the 4th quarter. That is a difference of 21.7 points per 100 possessions between the playoffs last year and the regular season this year. We just last year saw the Heat turn the page in the playoffs and become an elite team but can they do that again? Milwaukee is better this year, New York is better this year, and Boston is better this year. I’ll never bet against Spo, Jimmy, Bam, and Heat Culture and we should absolutely prepare for a world where they blow up the Celtics’ season again but I do not think this team is good enough to win the East.
76ers
If the big fella is healthy, the Sixers have a chance. Joel Embiid was having the best season of his career and was the runaway MVP favorite before the injury he suffered. The Sixers were 29-17 when Embiid tore his meniscus in Golden State and now they are 36-29, that is a record of 7-12 since Embiid got hurt. The Sixers are 10.3 points per 100 possessions better with Embiid on the court than they are when he is off the court. I don’t think the Sixers can win the championship either way but they at least have a puncher's chance if Embiid returns.
The Celtics have been the best team in the Eastern Conference all season and I don’t think that will change in the playoffs. However, that does not mean that Boston is a shoe-in to win the conference and head to the NBA Finals with the Bucks as their biggest threat.
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